FNUS72 KILM 022013 FWSILM SPOT FORECAST FOR SIMMONS RD FIRE...NC FOREST SERVICE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 413 PM EDT SAT JUL 2 2011 FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1603 EDT ON JULY 02. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... AT THE FIRE SITE...INCREASING SURFACE WINDS EXPECTED SUNDAY COMPARED TO TODAY...AS SOUTHWEST WINDS GET UNDERWAY. LOWER LVORI INDEX EARLY SUNDAY COMPARED TO THIS MORNING. THESE TWO FACTOR SHOULD PREVENT WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG AND SMOKE. TRANSPORT OF SMOKE SUNDAY PRIMARILY TOWARD THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST. BERMUDA RIDGE WILL BUILD WESTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND REMAIN THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. THE DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE RIDGE SHOULD HELP PUSH SMOKE MOSTLY NORTH OF THE AREA BY SUNDAY. HIGHER LEVELS OF HEAT AND HUMIDITY HOWEVER WILL RETURN OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE NEXT WEEK... BUT THEY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME WIDESPREAD. .SUNDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (35-45 PERCENT). A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY MID AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 95. MIN HUMIDITY........36 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 5 TO 9 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS LATE. MIXING HEIGHT.......300-1700 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 7500-8000 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 9 TO 16 MPH. EYE LEVEL WINDS.....SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 9 MPH...GUSTS TO 14 MPH. MAXIMUM LVORI.......5 EARLY. ADI.................7...INCREASING TO 25 LATE IN THE MORNING...THEN INCREASING TO 43 LATE IN THE MORNING...INCREASING TO 66 LATE IN THE MORNING...DECREASING TO 50...INCREASING TO 69 LATE...DECREASING TO 49. TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).............17 34 34 34 35 47 WEATHER COV......... S CHC WEATHER TYPE........NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE TSTORM TEMP................72 77 84 90 93 93 RH..................85 75 58 46 41 40 20 FT WIND..........SW 5 SW 6 SW 6 SW 6 SW 7 W 7 20 FT WIND GUST.....10 10 10 15 15 15 EYE LEVEL WIND......SW 4 SW 5 SW 4 SW 5 SW 5 W 5 EYE LVL WND GST.....10 10 10 15 15 15 MAXIMUM LVORI.......5 3 1 1 1 1 ADI.................6 8 43 70 67 69 .SUNDAY NIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (45-55 PERCENT)...THEN BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT). MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 71. MAX HUMIDITY........90 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 6 TO 8 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING. MIXING HEIGHT.......4600-6300 FT AGL...DECREASING TO 300-900 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 9 TO 16 MPH. EYE LEVEL WINDS.....SOUTHWEST WINDS 6 TO 8 MPH. MAXIMUM LVORI.......4. ADI.................43...DECREASING TO 11. TIME (EDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM SKY (%).............51 46 47 47 47 46 WEATHER COV.........S CHC S CHC WEATHER TYPE........TSTORM TSTORM NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP................89 86 80 77 75 74 RH..................46 58 72 78 81 85 20 FT WIND..........W 6 SW 5 SW 5 SW 5 SW 5 SW 5 20 FT WIND GUST.....15 10 10 10 10 10 EYE LEVEL WIND......W 5 SW 4 SW 4 SW 4 SW 4 SW 4 EYE LVL WND GST.....15 10 10 10 10 10 LVORI...............1 2 3 4 4 4 ADI.................43 12 11 11 11 8 .INDEPENDENCE DAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (40-50 PERCENT). MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 94. MIN HUMIDITY........40 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 6 TO 10 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS LATE. MIXING HEIGHT.......400-1600 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 5200-7000 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 12 TO 18 MPH. EYE LEVEL WINDS.....SOUTHWEST WINDS 6 TO 10 MPH. MAXIMUM LVORI.......5. ADI.................11...INCREASING TO 34 LATE IN THE MORNING...THEN INCREASING TO 56 LATE IN THE MORNING...INCREASING TO 64 LATE IN THE MORNING...DECREASING TO 57. TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).............45 44 43 43 43 46 WEATHER COV......... S CHC WEATHER TYPE........NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE TSTORM TEMP................72 76 83 90 93 93 RH..................90 79 61 47 42 40 20 FT WIND..........SW 5 SW 5 SW 5 SW 5 SW 6 SW 7 20 FT WIND GUST.....10 10 10 10 10 15 EYE LEVEL WIND......SW 4 SW 4 SW 4 SW 4 SW 4 SW 5 EYE LVL WND GST.....10 10 10 10 10 15 LVORI...............5 4 1 1 1 1 ADI.................8 14 56 68 60 56 $$ FORECASTER...8 REQUESTED BY...JOHN COOK TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE .TAG 20110702.SIMMO.02/ILM