FNUS72 KILM 030911 FWSILM SPOT FORECAST FOR SIMMONS RD...NCFS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 511 AM EDT SUN JUL 3 2011 FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 0011 EDT ON JULY 03. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... BERMUDA RIDGE WILL BUILD WESTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND REMAIN THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. THE DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE RIDGE SHOULD HELP PUSH SMOKE MOSTLY NORTH OF THE AREA BY MONDAY. HIGHER LEVELS OF HEAT AND HUMIDITY HOWEVER WILL RETURN INTO THE UPCOMING WEEK. EXPECT ISOLATED AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH AND STALL JUST NORTH OF THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A BETTER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. WIND PROFILE ANALYSIS/FIRE CONTROL OVER FLAT TERRAIN IS FAVORABLE. EXCEPTION...UNFAVORABLE PROFILE ALONG AND EAST OF THE SEA BREEZE DURING THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...TYPE 1-F. MAXIMUM WIND NEAR 1000 FT AGL...DIRECTION S...SPEED 28 MPH. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (35-45 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG EARLY IN THE MORNING. AREAS OF SMOKE EARLY IN THE MORNING. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 95. MIN HUMIDITY........38 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 6 TO 9 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. MIXING HEIGHT.......200-1800 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 5300-6900 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 9 TO 16 MPH. EYE LEVEL WINDS.....SOUTHWEST WINDS 6 TO 9 MPH. LVORI...............4. ADI.................7...INCREASING TO 25 LATE IN THE MORNING...THEN INCREASING TO 43 LATE IN THE MORNING...INCREASING TO 63 LATE IN THE MORNING...DECREASING TO 50. TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).............30 27 33 41 48 53 WEATHER COV.........AREAS AREAS S CHC S CHC WEATHER TYPE........SMOKE SMOKE NONE NONE TSTORM TSTORM TEMP................72 76 84 91 93 93 RH..................93 79 59 44 39 39 20 FT WIND..........SW 5 SW 6 SW 6 SW 7 SW 7 SW 7 20 FT WIND GUST.....10 15 15 15 15 15 EYE LEVEL WIND......SW 4 SW 4 SW 5 SW 5 SW 5 SW 5 EYE LVL WND GST.....10 15 15 15 15 15 LVORI...............6 4 1 1 1 1 ADI.................6 8 43 65 49 50 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (55-65 PERCENT). A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL EARLY MORNING. MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 71. MAX HUMIDITY........92 PERCENT. MIXING HEIGHT.......2500-4300 FT AGL...DECREASING TO 0 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 10 TO 13 MPH...INCREASING TO 15 TO 23 MPH LATE IN THE EVENING...THEN DECREASING TO AROUND 13 MPH LATE...BECOMING SOUTH AROUND 0 MPH LATE. EYE LEVEL WINDS.....SOUTHWEST WINDS 6 TO 8 MPH. LVORI...............3. ADI.................43...DECREASING TO 12. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 6 TO 8 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL EARLY MORNING. TIME (EDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM SKY (%).............60 65 63 60 57 56 WEATHER COV.........S CHC S CHC S CHC S CHC WEATHER TYPE........TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM NONE NONE TEMP................90 84 80 77 75 74 RH..................44 55 65 75 83 88 20 FT WIND..........SW 6 S 6 S 6 S 6 SW 6 SW 6 20 FT WIND GUST.....15 10 10 10 10 10 EYE LEVEL WIND......SW 5 S 4 S 4 S 4 SW 4 SW 4 EYE LVL WND GST.....15 10 10 10 10 10 LVORI...............1 2 3 4 4 5 ADI.................43 12 11 14 14 11 .INDEPENDENCE DAY... EYE LEVEL WINDS.....SOUTHWEST WINDS 7 TO 10 MPH. LVORI...............4. ADI.................14...INCREASING TO 28 LATE IN THE MORNING...THEN INCREASING TO 56 LATE IN THE MORNING...INCREASING TO 64 LATE IN THE MORNING...DECREASING TO 52...INCREASING TO 58 LATE. SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (45-55 PERCENT). SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 94. MIN HUMIDITY........40 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 7 TO 10 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS LATE. TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).............55 53 49 45 40 43 WEATHER COV......... ISOLTD WEATHER TYPE........NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE TSTORM TEMP................72 74 83 90 93 94 RH..................92 86 61 46 41 40 20 FT WIND..........SW 6 SW 6 SW 6 SW 6 SW 6 SW 8 20 FT WIND GUST.....10 10 10 10 15 15 EYE LEVEL WIND......SW 4 SW 4 SW 4 SW 4 SW 5 SW 6 EYE LVL WND GST.....10 10 10 10 15 15 LVORI...............6 4 1 1 1 1 ADI.................10 17 56 68 60 56 $$ FORECASTER...HOEHLER REQUESTED BY...JOHN COOK TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE .TAG 20110703.SIMMO.01/ILM