FNUS72 KILM 032022 FWSILM SPOT FORECAST FOR SIMMONS RD FIRE...NC FOREST SERVICE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 422 PM EDT SUN JUL 3 2011 FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1343 EDT ON JULY 03. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... ...UPDATED FOR INCREASING LOW-LEVEL JET TONIGHT... INCREASING CONCERNS THAT THE FIRE MAY HAVE AN OPPORTUNITY TO RUN TONIGHT AS A LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPS AND GRADUALLY INTENSIFIES. IF THE FIRE IS HOT ENOUGH IT MAY TAP INTO THE LOW-LEVEL JET ALLOWING STRONGER WIND GUSTS TO MIX TO THE SURFACE. THE JET WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHWEST AROUND 20 KNOTS BY 0300 UTC...THEN VEER TO A WEST- SOUTHWEST DIRECTION BY 0600 UTC AND INCREASING TO 25 KNOTS. THE MIXING OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET WOULD ALSO ACT TO LOWER THE MAX HUMIDITY COMPARED TO THE AREAS SURROUNDING THE FIRE. THE LOW-LEVEL JET IS SHOWN TO WEAKEN AFTER 1500 UTC MONDAY AND THE DIRECTION WILL BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST. .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (30-40 PERCENT)...THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY (50-60 PERCENT). A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING. MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 73. MAX HUMIDITY........87 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 8 TO 12 MPH EARLY WITH GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASING TO 10 TO 20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS BY LATE EVENING...BECOMING WEST- SOUTHWEST 15 TO 20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS OVERNIGHT IF THE FIRE CAN TAP INTO THE LOW-LEVEL JET. MIXING HEIGHT.......2500-4300 FT AGL...DECREASING TO 300-1700 FT AGL IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 10 TO 20 MPH...INCREASING TO 20 TO 25 MPH AND BECOMING WEST TO SOUTHWEST. LVORI...............4. ADI.................40...DECREASING TO 10. TIME (EDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM SKY (%).............26 28 47 53 55 57 WEATHER COV.........S CHC S CHC S CHC WEATHER TYPE........TSTORM TSTORM NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP................93 87 82 79 76 75 RH..................40 48 60 72 65 66 20 FT WIND..........SW 10 SW 10 SW 12 SW 12 SW 12 W 12 20 FT WIND GUST.....16 17 18 20 22 25 LVORI...............1 2 2 3 4 4 ADI.................40 25 12 14 12 10 .INDEPENDENCE DAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (45-55 PERCENT). A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 95. MIN HUMIDITY........41 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS EARLY...BECOMING SOUTHWEST 6 TO 10 MPH BY MID-MORNING. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. MIXING HEIGHT.......1800 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 5300-7100 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST TO SOUTHWEST 10 TO 20 MPH...BECOMING SOUTHWEST 10 TO 15 MPH. LVORI...............5 EARLY. ADI.................9...INCREASING TO INCREASING TO INCREASING TO 68. TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).............58 58 54 48 43 47 WEATHER COV......... S CHC WEATHER TYPE........NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE TSTORM TEMP................74 78 85 91 94 94 RH..................70 72 57 46 42 41 20 FT WIND..........W 10 W 8 SW 7 SW 6 SW 6 SW 8 20 FT WIND GUST.....17 14 11 10 14 14 LVORI...............5 3 1 1 1 1 ADI.................9 15 41 68 54 40 .MONDAY NIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (45-55 PERCENT)...THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY (55-65 PERCENT). MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 72. MAX HUMIDITY........93 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 9 MPH IN THE EVENING...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL EARLY MORNING. MIXING HEIGHT.......4700-6100 FT AGL...DECREASING TO 200-1000 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 6 TO 13 MPH...BECOMING SOUTH 0 TO 3 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. EYE LEVEL WINDS.....SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 9 MPH IN THE EVENING...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. TIME (EDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM SKY (%).............49 52 56 61 64 62 WEATHER COV.........S CHC S CHC WEATHER TYPE........TSTORM TSTORM NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP................91 86 80 77 76 74 RH..................45 54 68 78 86 90 20 FT WIND..........SW 7 SW 5 SW 4 SW 3 SW 2 SW 3 20 FT WIND GUST.....15 10 5 5 5 5 EYE LEVEL WIND......SW 5 SW 4 SW 3 SW 2 SW 2 SW 2 EYE LVL WND GST.....15 10 5 5 5 5 LVORI...............1 2 3 4 6 7 ADI.................42 15 5 2 0 0 .TUESDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (50-60 PERCENT). MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 93. MIN HUMIDITY........47 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 6 MPH IN THE MORNING...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. MIXING HEIGHT.......300-1800 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 5200-7100 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 3 TO 10 MPH. EYE LEVEL WINDS.....SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 6 MPH IN THE MORNING...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).............59 56 54 51 48 51 WEATHER COV......... S CHC S CHC WEATHER TYPE........NONE NONE NONE NONE TSTORM TSTORM TEMP................73 76 83 89 91 91 RH..................93 81 65 52 48 48 20 FT WIND..........SW 4 SW 5 SW 4 SW 3 W 2 SW 3 20 FT WIND GUST.....5 10 5 5 5 5 EYE LEVEL WIND......SW 3 SW 4 SW 3 SW 2 W 2 SW 2 EYE LVL WND GST.....5 10 5 5 5 5 LVORI...............6 4 2 2 1 2 ADI.................2 12 19 21 58 28 $$ FORECASTER...PFAFF REQUESTED BY...JOHN COOK TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE .TAG 20110703.SIMMO.02/ILM