FNUS72 KILM 041626 FWSILM SPOT FORECAST FOR HORNET FIRE...SC FORESTRY COMMISSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 1226 PM EDT MON JUL 4 2011 FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1212 EDT ON JULY 04. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... AT THE FIRE SITE...MAIN CONCERNS ARE PYRO-CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT IN THE MIDDLE AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING AS THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE UNSTABLE WITH A WEAK STEERING FLOW FROM WEST TO EAST. THIS COULD CAUSE ERRATIC WINDS AT THE FIRE SITE...AND IN A WORSE CASE SCENARIO ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES. THE OTHER CONCERN IS LATE TONIGHT...A LOW-LEVEL JET WILL PRODUCE 25-30 MPH WINDS AT 1500 FT AGL. GIVEN THE HEAT FROM THE FIRE AND PARTIAL MIXING OF WINDS ALOFT...SOME OF THESE WINDS COULD MIX DOWN TO GROUND LEVEL AT TIMES PRODUCING STRONG GUSTS. BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING NEAR TYPICAL WEATHER FOR EARLY JULY. TROPICAL MOISTURE MAY INCREASE TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...RESULTING IN AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WIND PROFILE ANALYSIS/FIRE CONTROL OVER FLAT TERRAIN IS FAVORABLE. .REST OF TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (35-45 PERCENT). AREAS OF SMOKE EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 91. MIN HUMIDITY........51 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 12 TO 14 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......3300-4600 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 13 TO 21 MPH. EYE LEVEL WINDS.....SOUTH WINDS 12 TO 14 MPH. MAX LVORI...........1. ADI.................36 INCREASING TO 41 IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. TIME (EDT) 1 PM 3 PM 5 PM SKY (%).............43 43 34 WEATHER COV.........AREAS WEATHER TYPE........SMOKE NONE NONE TEMP................89 89 88 RH..................54 51 55 20 FT WIND..........S 10 S 11 S 11 20 FT WIND GUST.....20 20 25 EYE LEVEL WIND......S 7 S 8 S 8 EYE LVL WND GST.....20 20 25 LVORI...............1 1 1 ADI.................36 38 41 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (30-40 PERCENT). MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 75. MAX HUMIDITY........92 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 9 TO 12 MPH...GUSTS TO 18 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......800-2700 FT AGL...DECREASING TO 300-600 FT AGL LATE IN THE EVENING. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 15 TO 21 MPH...BECOMING SOUTH 3 TO 9 MPH LATE...THEN INCREASING TO SOUTHWEST AROUND 16 MPH LATE. EYE LEVEL WINDS.....SOUTHWEST WINDS 7 TO 11 MPH...GUSTS TO 19 MPH. MAX LVORI...........6. ADI.................41 EARLY DECREASING TO 3 OVERNIGHT. TIME (EDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM SKY (%).............30 23 28 35 40 42 WEATHER COV......... WEATHER TYPE........NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP................86 84 82 81 80 78 RH..................58 68 75 80 84 87 20 FT WIND..........S 11 S 10 S 9 S 7 S 6 SW 5 20 FT WIND GUST.....20 20 20 15 10 10 EYE LEVEL WIND......S 8 S 8 S 7 S 5 S 4 SW 4 EYE LVL WND GST.....20 20 20 15 10 10 LVORI...............1 3 3 4 4 6 ADI.................41 35 23 13 10 3 .TUESDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (45-55 PERCENT). MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 91. MIN HUMIDITY........55 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 6 TO 11 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......500-2200 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 2900-4300 FT AGL LATE IN THE MORNING. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 3 TO 5 MPH...BECOMING SOUTH 7 TO 13 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING. EYE LEVEL WINDS.....SOUTH WINDS 6 TO 11 MPH. MAX LVORI...........7 EARLY. ADI.................1...INCREASING TO 27 BY LATE AFTERNOON. TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).............45 47 50 49 48 48 WEATHER COV......... WEATHER TYPE........NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP................77 77 82 87 90 89 RH..................91 83 66 56 56 57 20 FT WIND..........SW 5 SW 5 SW 6 S 6 S 7 S 9 20 FT WIND GUST.....10 10 10 15 15 15 EYE LEVEL WIND......SW 4 SW 4 SW 4 S 5 S 5 S 7 EYE LVL WND GST.....10 10 10 15 15 15 LVORI...............7 5 3 2 1 2 ADI.................1 5 9 25 31 27 $$ FORECASTER..8 REQUESTED BY...DOUG MILLS TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE .TAG 20110704.HORNE.01/ILM