FNUS72 KILM 041326 FWSILM SPOT FORECAST FOR SIMMONS RD FIRE...NC FOREST SERVICE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 926 AM EDT MON JUL 4 2011 FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 0901 EDT ON JULY 04. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... SIMILAR LOW-LEVEL WINDS TODAY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...WITH MODERATE SW WIND FLOW EXPECTED. SW WINDS WILL BECOME A BIT GUSTIER BY THE MIDDLE AFTERNOON...ENDURING THROUGH EARLY EVENING. CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS IMPLY THAT THE POTENTIAL FOR TOWERING PYRO-CUMULUS EXISTS AGAIN TODAY. BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS HOLDING CLOSE TO SUMMER CLIMATOLOGY. TROPICAL MOISTURE MAY INCREASE TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...RESULTING IN AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WIND PROFILE ANALYSIS/FIRE CONTROL OVER FLAT TERRAIN IS QUESTIONABLE THIS MORNING. TYPE 1-F. MAXIMUM WIND NEAR 1300 FT AGL...DIRECTION SW. SPEED 34 MPH. THIS LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD DISSIPATE BETWEEN 10 AND 11 AM...LEAVING A FAVORABLE WIND PROFILE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (40-50 PERCENT). AREAS OF SMOKE. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 95. MIN HUMIDITY........43 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 7 TO 9 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MIXING HEIGHT.......2900-4200 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 5300-6800 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON...THEN DECREASING TO 3700-4800 FT AGL LATE...DECREASING TO 1200-2600 FT AGL EARLY IN THE EVENING. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 9 TO 17 MPH. EYE LEVEL WINDS.....SOUTHWEST WINDS 7 TO 9 MPH. MAX LVORI...........2. ADI.................INCREASING TO 68 MIDDAY...THEN DECREASING TO 43 IN THE AFTERNOON...DECREASING TO 32 IN THE EVENING AND TO 22 OVERNIGHT. TIME (EDT) 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM 6 PM 8 PM SKY (%).............31 34 37 44 53 61 WEATHER COV.........AREAS AREAS AREAS CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE WEATHER TYPE........SMOKE SMOKE SMOKE RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR TEMP................86 92 94 94 90 85 RH..................57 47 43 43 47 57 20 FT WIND..........SW 6 SW 6 SW 7 SW 7 SW 7 SW 7 20 FT WIND GUST.....15 15 15 15 15 15 EYE LEVEL WIND......SW 4 SW 5 SW 5 SW 5 SW 5 SW 5 EYE LVL WND GST.....15 15 15 15 15 15 LVORI...............2 1 1 1 1 2 ADI.................12 68 44 44 42 29 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (50-60 PERCENT). MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 73. MAX HUMIDITY........91 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 6 TO 8 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. MIXING HEIGHT.......900 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 5500 THIS AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 8 MPH...INCREASING TO SOUTH AROUND 24 MPH IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. EYE LEVEL WINDS.....SOUTHWEST WINDS 6 TO 8 MPH. MAX LVORI...........6. ADI.................9 THEN DECREASING TO NEAR 0 OVERNIGHT. TIME (EDT) 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM 6 AM 8 AM SKY (%).............60 60 60 57 52 49 WEATHER COV.........CHANCE S CHC WEATHER TYPE........TSTORM TSTORM NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP................81 78 76 75 74 77 RH..................66 75 82 87 91 82 20 FT WIND..........SW 6 SW 6 SW 5 SW 5 SW 5 SW 5 20 FT WIND GUST.....15 10 10 10 10 10 EYE LEVEL WIND......SW 5 SW 4 SW 4 SW 4 SW 4 SW 4 EYE LVL WND GST.....15 10 10 10 10 10 LVORI...............3 4 6 6 6 4 ADI.................9 3 0 0 2 7 .TUESDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (55-65 PERCENT). MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 92. MIN HUMIDITY........51 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 6 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. MIXING HEIGHT.......300 FT INCREASING TO 4800 FEET. TRANSPORT WINDS..... EYE LEVEL WINDS.....SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 6 MPH. LVORI...............MISSING. ADI.................MISSING. TIME (EDT) 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM 6 PM 8 PM SKY (%).............61 58 55 56 57 58 WEATHER COV......... ISOLTD ISOLTD ISOLTD ISOLTD WEATHER TYPE........NONE NONE TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TEMP................83 88 91 90 88 82 RH..................70 57 51 51 54 65 20 FT WIND..........SW 5 SW 4 SW 4 SW 4 S 4 S 5 20 FT WIND GUST.....10 5 5 5 10 10 EYE LEVEL WIND......SW 4 SW 3 SW 3 SW 3 S 3 S 4 EYE LVL WND GST.....10 5 5 5 10 10 LVORI...............M M M M M M ADI.................M M M M M M $$ FORECASTER...8 REQUESTED BY...JOHN COOK TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE .TAG 20110704.SIMMO.01/ILM