FNUS73 KAPX 051455 FWSAPX SPOT FORECAST FOR TURTLE LAKE UNIT 1...STATE OF MICHIGAN NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 1055 AM EDT TUE JUL 5 2011 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1300 EDT ON JULY 05. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING DRAGGING AN ILL-DEFINED COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN A LOW END CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT THE BURN SITE...THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...UNTIL THE FRONT PASSES. LESS HUMID AND SOMEWHAT COOLER WEATHER WILL ARRIVE BEHIND THE FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. WESTERLY WINDS 8 TO 11 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED AROUND IGNITION TIME AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH A FEW GUSTS TO AROUND 15 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS THAT MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MAY PRODUCE GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS. ADAM .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY (50-60 PERCENT). ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 2 PM. TEMPERATURE.........80 AT IGNITION...MAX 82. RH..................47 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 44 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........WINDS WEST AT 8 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE LIGHT WINDS BECOMING WEST 5 TO 11 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 13 TO 22 MPH INCREASING TO 24 TO 25 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (1000) AT IGNITION. MAX...EXCELLENT (1400). TIME (EDT) 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM SKY (%).........82 57 57 57 72 WEATHER COV.....CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC WEATHER TYPE....RW RW RW RW RW TEMP............80 81 82 81 81 RH..............47 46 44 47 47 20 FT WIND DIR..W W W W W 20 FT WIND SPD..7 7 8 9 10 20 FT WIND GUST.15 15 20 20 20 SMOKE DISP......10001100130014001200 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURE.........MIN 62. RH..................MAX 100 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH UNTIL EARLY MORNING BECOMING LIGHT...THEN BECOMING WEST 5 TO 6 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 14 TO 23 MPH DECREASING TO 6 TO 12 MPH IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. TIME (EDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM SKY (%).........72 72 79 79 79 79 79 79 71 71 71 71 WEATHER COV.....CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC SCT SCT SCT SCT WEATHER TYPE....RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW TEMP............79 77 75 73 71 69 67 66 65 64 63 62 RH..............50 56 60 66 71 78 84 84 87 93 97 100 20 FT WIND DIR..W W W W W W W W W W W W 20 FT WIND SPD..9 7 6 6 6 6 6 5 4 6 5 5 20 FT WIND GUST.20 15 15 15 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 $$ FORECASTER...BRIAN ADAM REQUESTED BY...JIM FISHER TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20110705.TURTL.01/APX