FNUS75 KBOU 060250 FWSBOU SPOT FORECAST FOR HOLIDAY FIRE...USFS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO 840 PM MDT TUE JUL 5 2011 IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM IN FROM UTAH DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...CIRCULATING AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY TRACKING EASTWARD OVER NORTHERN COLORADO WILL OCCASIONAL PASS OVER AND NEAR THE WILDFIRE DURING THE NEXT 1 TO 3 HOURS. HEAVY RAINFALL IS NO LONGER ANTICIPATED...HOWEVER PASSING SHOWERS COULD STILL LAY DOWN A TENTH OF AN INCH OF RAIN IN 30 MINUTES AND PRODUCE WIND BRIEF GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO TRANSITION INTO LOW CLOUDS AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH A MOIST WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH MORE THAN SPRINKLES FROM THIS LOW CLOUD COVER. ON WEDNESDAY... CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN MILD AND RELATIVELY MOIST WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE FOR SOAKING RAINFALL ON WEDNESDAY AS STORM MOTIONS SHOULD BE A TAD SLOWER. ...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS... .REST OF TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY UNTIL 0200...THEN CLOUDY. ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS UNTIL 2200...THEN A FEW SPRINKLES. MIN TEMPERATURE.....53-57. MAX HUMIDITY........87-92%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 4-8 MPH WITH VARIABLE GUSTS TO AROUND 20 MPH UNTIL 2200...THEN SOUTHEAST UNDER 7 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 5-12 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......10000 FT AGL LOWERING TO BELOW 1000 FT AGL AFTER 0200. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD UNTIL 2200...BECOMING POOR AFTER 0200. HAINES INDEX........2 VERY LOW. .WEDNESDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. WIDELY SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS UNTIL 1300...THEN RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY. MAX TEMPERATURE.....75-79. MIN HUMIDITY........46-51%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS 7-13 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 5-12 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......BELOW 1000 FT AGL UNTIL 0700...RISING TO 5800-6800 FT AGL AFTER 1100. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 1100...THEN FAIR AFTER 1300. HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW. .WEDNESDAY NIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 2200...THEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. MIN TEMPERATURE.....54-58. MAX HUMIDITY........76-81%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 6-7 MPH UNTIL 0300...THEN NORTHWEST AROUND 5 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 4-8 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......6800 FT AGL UNTIL 1900. BELOW 1000 FT AGL AFTER 2400. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR UNTIL 1900. POOR AFTER 2100. HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW. .THURSDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 1200...THEN CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. MAX TEMPERATURE.....82. MIN HUMIDITY........32%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH UNTIL 0900...THEN SOUTHWEST UNTIL 1200...THEN SOUTHEAST 6-12 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST AROUND 4 MPH UNTIL 1200...THEN SOUTHEAST 0-4 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......BELOW 1000 FT AGL UNTIL 0700. 9200-10200 FT AGL AFTER 1100. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR. HAINES INDEX........2 VERY LOW. .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5... .FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 1200...THEN CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 7 MPH. .SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 1200...THEN CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. WEST WINDS AROUND 6 MPH. .SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 1200...THEN CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. TYPICAL SLOPE/VALLEY WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. .MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 1200...THEN CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. HIGHS IN THE MID 80S. NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 6 MPH. FIRE WEATHER TABLE FOR HOLIDAY FIRE. +++ DATA IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE HAS BEEN SAMPLED DIRECTLY FROM THE FORECAST DATABASE. VALUES IN THE TABLE MAY VARY SLIGHTLY FROM INFORMATION IN THE NARRATIVE FORECAST. PLEASE PROVIDE FEEDBACK IF THE INFORMATION IN THIS TABLE HAS BEEN REPRESENTATIVE AND/OR USEFUL. +++ FORECAST SC PP WR AT RH 20FT G H L 10K MIXG TRAN VENTL AJTV VALID AT % % % F % WIND S I A WIND HGT WIND RATE RATNG MPH T L MPH AGL MPH KT-FT 07/05-20 94 55 39 71 56 SE 9 14 2 4 W25 3327 SE 8 20308 P 07/05-21 94 55 39 67 65 SE 9 15 2 4 W24 1596 SE 9 12832 P 07/05-22 94 55 39 65 70 SE 9 15 2 4 W23 1155 SE 9 9383 P 07/05-23 94 55 39 63 74 SE 9 15 2 4 W22 714 SE10 5935 P 07/06-00 80 20 4 61 81 SE 9 15 2 3 W21 273 SE10 2487 P 07/06-01 80 20 4 59 88 SE 9 14 2 3 W21 281 SE 9 2372 P 07/06-02 80 20 4 59 88 SE 8 14 2 3 W21 289 S 9 2257 P 07/06-03 80 20 4 58 89 S 8 13 2 3 W22 298 S 8 2142 P 07/06-04 80 20 4 58 89 S 8 8 2 3 W23 366 S 8 2639 P 07/06-05 80 20 4 57 91 S 7 7 3 3 W24 435 S 8 3136 P 07/06-06 72 20 4 58 90 S 7 7 3 3 W26 503 S 8 3633 P 07/06-07 72 20 4 59 87 S 7 7 3 3 W28 1577 S 8 8804 P 07/06-08 72 20 4 65 70 S 7 7 3 3 W30 2651 SW 7 13976 P 07/06-09 72 20 4 69 62 S 7 7 3 3 W30 3725 SW 6 19148 P 07/06-10 72 20 4 71 57 S 8 8 3 3 W30 4864 SW 7 31135 P 07/06-11 72 20 4 73 53 SE 8 14 2 3 W29 6004 W 8 43122 F 07/06-12 79 55 30 75 51 SE 9 15 2 5 NW26 7143 W 9 55109 F 07/06-13 79 55 30 75 52 S10 16 2 5 W23 7008 W 8 52175 F 07/06-14 79 55 30 76 55 S10 16 2 5 W20 6873 W 8 49241 F 07/06-15 79 55 30 74 60 S10 16 2 5 W16 6739 W 8 46306 F 07/06-16 79 55 30 75 54 S 9 15 2 5 W15 6594 W 8 46161 F 07/06-17 79 55 30 74 51 SW 8 13 2 5 W14 6449 W 8 46016 F 07/06-18 79 47 23 75 46 SW 7 7 2 4 W14 6727 W 8 49647 F 07/06-19 79 47 23 73 48 S 7 7 2 4 W14 5115 W 7 35679 P 07/06-20 79 47 23 70 54 S 6 6 2 4 W14 3503 SW 6 21712 P 07/06-21 79 47 23 67 60 S 6 6 2 4 W14 1892 S 5 7744 P 07/06-22 79 47 23 65 65 S 6 6 2 4 W12 1410 S 5 5846 P 07/06-23 79 47 23 64 68 S 5 5 2 4 NW 9 929 S 5 3949 P 07/07-00 65 15 3 61 74 S 5 5 2 3 NW 7 448 S 6 2051 P 07/07-01 65 15 3 60 78 SW 5 5 2 3 N 5 403 SW 5 1787 P 07/07-02 65 15 3 59 78 W 5 5 3 3 NE 5 358 W 5 1524 P 07/07-03 65 15 3 58 77 NW 5 5 3 3 NE 3 314 NW 5 1260 P 07/07-04 65 15 3 58 78 NW 5 5 3 3 NE 3 273 NW 5 1100 P 07/07-05 65 15 3 57 76 NW 5 5 2 3 NE 3 232 NW 5 940 P 07/07-06 60 15 3 58 75 NW 5 5 2 3 N 3 191 NW 5 781 P 07/07-07 60 15 3 59 70 NW 3 3 2 3 N 3 2209 NW 5 8122 P 07/07-08 60 15 3 67 53 W 2 2 2 3 N 3 4228 NW 5 15463 P 07/07-09 60 15 3 73 44 W 2 2 2 3 N 3 6247 N 5 22804 P 07/07-10 60 15 3 76 40 SW 3 3 2 3 N 3 7656 N 3 22934 P 07/07-11 60 15 3 79 37 SE 5 5 2 3 NW 2 9065 N 3 23065 P 07/07-12 67 40 18 80 36 E 6 6 2 4 NW 2 10474 N 2 23196 P 07/07-13 67 40 18 81 34 SE 7 7 2 4 W 5 10239 NE 2 17523 P 07/07-14 67 40 18 82 33 SE 8 14 2 4 W 7 10005 CALM 11849 P 07/07-15 67 40 18 79 35 SE 9 15 2 4 W 9 9771 CALM 6176 P 07/07-16 67 40 18 81 32 SE 9 15 2 4 W10 9581 S 2 19475 P 07/07-17 67 40 18 79 33 SE 9 15 2 4 W10 9391 S 5 32774 P 07/07-18 70 28 8 79 33 SE 9 15 2 4 W12 9202 SW 6 46074 F 07/07-19 70 28 8 77 35 S 9 14 2 4 W13 6373 S 7 32643 P 07/07-20 70 28 8 73 41 S 8 14 2 4 W15 3544 S 8 19212 P 07/07-21 70 28 8 69 49 S 8 13 2 4 W16 715 S 9 5781 P 07/07-22 70 28 8 67 54 S 8 8 2 4 W16 553 S 8 4251 P 07/07-23 70 28 8 65 59 S 7 7 2 4 W15 392 S 7 2720 P 07/08-00 60 10 2 63 66 S 7 7 2 2 W15 231 S 6 1190 P 07/08-01 60 10 2 61 71 S 7 7 2 2 W14 208 S 6 1110 P 07/08-02 60 10 2 60 72 S 8 8 3 2 W14 185 SW 7 1029 P 07/08-03 60 10 2 59 73 SW 8 13 3 2 W15 162 SW 7 948 P 07/08-04 60 10 2 58 75 SW 8 13 3 2 W16 157 SW 7 951 P 07/08-05 60 10 2 58 74 W 8 13 3 2 W18 152 W 7 954 P 07/08-06 51 10 2 58 73 W 8 13 3 2 W21 147 W 8 957 P 07/08-07 51 10 2 60 67 W 8 13 3 2 W22 1201 W 9 13418 P 07/08-08 51 10 2 68 51 W 7 7 3 2 W24 2256 W12 25879 P 07/08-09 51 10 2 74 41 W 7 7 3 2 W25 3310 W14 38340 P 07/08-10 51 10 2 77 37 W 7 7 3 2 W26 5136 W16 77904 G 07/08-11 51 10 2 80 34 SW 6 6 3 2 W26 6962 W18 117468 V 07/08-12 70 28 8 81 33 SW 6 6 3 4 W25 8788 W21 157032 E 07/08-13 70 28 8 82 32 SW 6 6 3 4 W25 8592 W21 153349 E 07/08-14 70 28 8 82 31 SW 7 7 3 4 W24 8396 W21 149665 V 07/08-15 70 28 8 80 34 SW 7 7 3 4 W24 8200 W21 145982 V 07/08-16 70 28 8 82 31 SW 7 7 3 4 W24 7818 W22 148637 V 07/08-17 70 28 8 80 33 SW 8 13 3 4 W23 7437 W23 151293 E 07/08-18 70 28 8 80 34 SW 8 13 3 4 W23 7056 W25 153949 E KEY: FORECAST - MONTH/DAY-HOUR OF FORECAST /24-HOUR CLOCK LOCAL TIME/ VALID AT SC - SKY COVER /PERCENT/ PP - PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION 0.01 INCH /PERCENT/ WR - PROBABILITY OF WETTING RAIN 0.1 INCH /PERCENT/ AT - TEMPERATURE /DEGREES F/ RH - RELATIVE HUMIDITY /PERCENT/ 20FT WIND - 20-FOOT WIND /MPH/ GST - 20-FOOT WIND GUST /MPH/ HI - HAINES INDEX LAL - LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVEL 10K WIND - 10000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL FREE-AIR WINDS /MPH/ MIXG HGT - MIXING HEIGHT /FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL/ TRAN WIND - TRANSPORT WINDS /MPH/ VENTL RATE - VENTILATION RATE /KNOT-FEET/ AJTV RATNG - SMOKE DISPERSION ADJECTIVE RATING P - POOR F - FAIR G - GOOD V - VERY GOOD E- EXCELLENT $$ FORECASTER...BAKER WFO BOULDER REQUESTED BY...GARY BATCHELDER REASON FOR REQUEST...WILDFIRE .TAG 20110705.HOLID.01/BOU