FNUS72 KILM 051758 FWSILM SPOT FORECAST FOR SIMMONS RD FIRE...NC FOREST SERVICE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 158 PM EDT TUE JUL 5 2011 FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1335 EDT ON JULY 05. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... AT THE FIRE SITE...SW WINDS MAY LIGHTEN UP BRIEFLY THROUGH MIDDLE AFTERNOON...THEN BECOMING SOUTHERLY AFTER 400 PM...HOLDING SOUTHERLY THROUGH EVENING...THEN EASING BACK TO SW OVERNIGHT. THE CURRENTLY CUMULUS FILED SUGGEST ANOTHER DECENT SHOT AT RAINFALL INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP AGAIN BY TONIGHT. BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN OVER THE EASTERN CAROLINAS IN SW WIND FLOW. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE LATE IN THE WEEK...AS TROPICAL MOISTURE MOVES NORTH AND A WEAKENING COLD FRONT SLOWLY MAKES ITS WAY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CAROLINAS INTO THE WEEKEND. WIND PROFILE ANALYSIS/FIRE CONTROL OVER FLAT TERRAIN IS UNFAVORABLE TYPE 1-F. LOW-LEVEL WIND MAX NEAR 1500 FT AGL...SW 30 MPH. THIS LOW LEVEL WIND MAX WILL WEAKEN INTO LATE MORNING...BUT LOCATION EAST OF A LANDWARD MOVING SEA BREEZE WILL REMAIN UNFAVORABLE. .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT). SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY IN THE EVENING. MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 75. MAX HUMIDITY........92 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 6 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL EARLY MORNING. MIXING HEIGHT.......3500-5000 FT AGL...DECREASING TO 300-2200 FT AGL EARLY IN THE EVENING. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 9 TO 18 MPH...DECREASING TO AROUND 6 MPH LATE. EYE LEVEL WINDS.....SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 6 MPH. MAX LVORI...........5. ADI.................35 DECREASING TRHOUGH TONIGHT. TIME (EDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM SKY (%).............69 69 78 77 60 53 WEATHER COV.........SCTTRD SCTTRD SCTTRD ISOLTD WEATHER TYPE........TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM NONE NONE TEMP................90 84 80 77 76 75 RH..................53 63 74 85 93 94 20 FT WIND..........S 5 S 5 S 5 S 5 S 4 S 4 20 FT WIND GUST.....15 10 10 10 10 10 EYE LEVEL WIND......S 4 S 4 S 4 S 4 S 3 S 3 EYE LVL WND GST.....15 10 10 10 10 10 LVORI...............2 3 3 4 4 5 ADI.................31 33 23 17 15 12 .WEDNESDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (60-70 PERCENT). A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 91. MIN HUMIDITY........55 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 8 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. MIXING HEIGHT.......300-1600 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 4700-6300 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 7 TO 13 MPH. EYE LEVEL WINDS.....SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 8 MPH. MAX LVORI...........7 EARLY. ADI.................7 EARLY INCREASING TO 42 IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON. TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).............59 64 59 60 70 70 WEATHER COV......... S CHC S CHC S CHC S CHC WEATHER TYPE........NONE NONE TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TEMP................75 77 83 87 89 89 RH..................94 86 72 61 54 55 20 FT WIND..........S 4 S 5 S 5 S 6 S 6 S 6 20 FT WIND GUST.....10 10 10 10 10 10 EYE LEVEL WIND......S 3 S 4 S 4 S 5 S 5 S 5 EYE LVL WND GST.....10 10 10 10 10 10 LVORI...............7 6 3 1 1 1 ADI.................7 7 8 38 42 36 $$ FORECASTER...8 REQUESTED BY...JOHN COOK TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE .TAG 20110705.SIMMO.01/ILM