FNUS72 KILM 060929 FWSILM SPOT FORECAST FOR SIMMONS RD FIRE...NCFS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 529 AM EDT WED JUL 6 2011 FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 0513 EDT ON JULY 06. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN A MOIST SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON AND PERSIST INTO THE EVENING. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH LATE THIS WEEK BUT LIKELY DISSIPATING PRIOR TO REACHING THE NC-SC BORDER. WIND PROFILE ANALYSIS/FIRE CONTROL OVER FLAT TERRAIN IS UNFAVORABLE THROUGH MID-MORNING...TYPE 1-F. LOW-LEVEL WIND MAX NEAR 2000 FT AGL... SW 25 MPH. WIND PROFILE WILL BECOME FAVORABLE BY 11 AM. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (60-70 PERCENT). A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY NOON ...INCREASING TO 50 PERCENT BY MID AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 91. MIN HUMIDITY........55 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 7 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. MIXING HEIGHT.......300-1800 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 4400-4800 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 7 TO 13 MPH. MAX LVORI...........7. MAX ADI.............34. TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).............60 53 60 70 77 79 WEATHER COV......... S CHC CHANCE CHANCE WEATHER TYPE........NONE NONE NONE RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR TEMP................75 78 83 88 90 90 RH..................93 83 69 59 55 56 20 FT WIND..........S 5 S 5 S 5 S 5 S 5 S 5 20 FT WIND GUST.....10 10 10 10 10 10 LVORI...............7 4 3 1 1 1 ADI.................8 8 8 32 34 33 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING...LOWERING TO 20 PERCENT OR LESS AFTER MIDNIGHT. MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 73. MAX HUMIDITY........95 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 7 MPH IN THE EVENING...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL EARLY MORNING. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT. MIXING HEIGHT.......2300-3800 FT AGL...DECREASING TO 100-1800 FT AGL IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 14 TO 20 MPH. MAX LVORI...........5. MAX ADI.............39. TIME (EDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM SKY (%).............83 85 85 83 83 81 WEATHER COV.........CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE WEATHER TYPE........RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR TSTORM TSTORM TEMP................87 82 79 77 76 75 RH..................61 72 79 84 88 91 20 FT WIND..........S 6 S 5 S 5 S 4 S 3 S 3 20 FT WIND GUST.....15 10 10 5 5 5 LVORI...............1 3 3 4 5 5 ADI.................37 39 30 13 12 11 .THURSDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 94. MIN HUMIDITY........52 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...BECOMING SOUTH 5 TO 7 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE MORNING. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. MIXING HEIGHT.......400-2300 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 5200-6200 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 12 TO 15 MPH. MAX LVORI...........6. MAX ADI.............38. TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).............78 76 75 73 72 74 WEATHER COV.........S CHC CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE WEATHER TYPE........TSTORM NONE NONE TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TEMP................74 78 84 90 92 92 RH..................95 85 71 59 54 52 20 FT WIND..........S 3 S 4 S 5 S 5 S 6 S 6 20 FT WIND GUST.....5 5 10 10 10 10 LVORI...............5 4 3 1 1 1 ADI.................10 9 9 38 38 36 $$ FORECASTER...HOEHLER REQUESTED BY...LLOYD BROWN TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE .TAG 20110706.SIMMO.01/ILM