FNUS72 KILM 061928
FWSILM

SPOT FORECAST FOR SIMMONS RD FIRE...NC FOREST SERVICE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
328 PM EDT WED JUL 6 2011

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1522 EDT ON JULY 06.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS
THE EASTERN CAROLINAS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY WITH THE
BEST CHANCE OCCURRING FRIDAY. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL
DISSIPATE NEAR THE CAROLINA COAST THIS WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
TRY TO RETURN TO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (55-65 PERCENT)...THEN BECOMING
                    SUNNY (20-30 PERCENT)...THEN BECOMING PARTLY
                    SUNNY (55-65 PERCENT)...THEN BECOMING CLOUDY
                    (95-100 PERCENT). A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
                    AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING. THUNDERSTORMS
                    AND SHOWERS LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON. AREAS OF
                    SMOKE EARLY IN THE MORNING.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 93.
MIN HUMIDITY........52 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 7 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
                    EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE
                    MORNING. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR
                    THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE MORNING. GUSTY AND
                    ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS LATE.
MIXING HEIGHT.......300-1800 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 4400-4800 FT
                    AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 7 TO 13 MPH.
MAX LVORI...........7.
MAX ADI.............43.

TIME (EDT)          3 PM   5 PM
SKY (%).............100    97
WEATHER COV.........LIKELY LIKELY
WEATHER TYPE........TSTORM TSTORM
TEMP................90     90
RH..................56     56
20 FT WIND..........SW 6   S 6
20 FT WIND GUST.....10     10
LVORI...............1      1
ADI.................35     33

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). THUNDERSTORMS AND
                    SHOWERS LIKELY IN THE EVENING...THEN A CHANCE
                    OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 73.
MAX HUMIDITY........97 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 6 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
                    EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE
                    EVENING. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR
                    THUNDERSTORMS.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2200-3800 FT AGL...DECREASING TO 500-700 FT AGL
                    IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 14 TO 20 MPH.
MAX LVORI...........6.
MAX ADI.............37.

TIME (EDT)          6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
SKY (%).............95     92     85     85     83     81
WEATHER COV.........LIKELY LIKELY CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE S CHC
WEATHER TYPE........TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM
TEMP................87     82     78     76     74     73
RH..................61     73     83     90     95     97
20 FT WIND..........S 5    S 5    S 5    S 5    S 5    S 4
20 FT WIND GUST.....10     10     10     10     10     5
LVORI...............1      3      4      5      6      6
ADI.................37     19     18     13     11     11

.THURSDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). A CHANCE OF
                    THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE MORNING. A CHANCE OF
                    SHOWERS LATE IN THE MORNING. A CHANCE OF
                    THUNDERSTORMS LATE.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 91.
MIN HUMIDITY........57 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH EARLY IN THE
                    MORNING...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE...THEN
                    BECOMING SOUTH 5 TO 6 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING
                    AND AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED
                    NEAR THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE MORNING. GUSTY
                    AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS
                    LATE IN THE MORNING. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
                    EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS LATE.
MIXING HEIGHT.......400-2200 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 3100-4900 FT
                    AGL LATE IN THE MORNING...THEN INCREASING TO
                    5600-6700 FT AGL EARLY IN THE
                    AFTERNOON...DECREASING TO 2400-4000 FT AGL
                    LATE.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 7 TO 15 MPH.
MAX LVORI...........6.
MAX ADI.............39.

TIME (EDT)          6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
SKY (%).............78     78     76     74     72     74
WEATHER COV.........S CHC                CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE
WEATHER TYPE........TSTORM NONE   NONE   TSTORM TSTORM RNSHWR
TEMP................74     76     82     88     90     90
RH..................96     94     77     64     58     57
20 FT WIND..........S 4    S 3    S 4    S 5    S 5    S 4
20 FT WIND GUST.....5      5      5                    5
LVORI...............6      5      3      1      2      1
ADI.................10     14     31     35     26     32

$$
FORECASTER...KEEBLER
REQUESTED BY...LLOYD BROWN
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20110706.SIMMO.02/ILM