FNUS72 KILM 071910 FWSILM SPOT FORECAST FOR HORNET FIRE...SC FORESTRY COMMISSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 310 PM EDT THU JUL 7 2011 FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1337 EDT ON JULY 07. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... UPDATED SPOT FORECAST...ALSO INCLUDED FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP EACH DAY. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL DISSIPATE NEAR THE CAROLINA COAST THIS WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY TO RETURN TO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALSO NOTE...A SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET AROUND 20 KNOTS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TONIGHT. .REST OF THIS AFTERNOON...WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE PRODUCING LOCALLY GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS AND BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS. OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S. THE SEA BREEZE WILL PUSH INLAND ALLOWING FOR SOUTHEAST WINDS TO INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 MPH AND SOME CLEARING SKIES. MINIMUM RH AROUND 60 PERCENT. .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS. A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 77. MAX HUMIDITY........93 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHEAST WINDS 8 TO 12 MPH...BECOMING SOUTH 5 TO 10 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. MIXING HEIGHT.......3300-4400 FT AGL EARLY...DECREASING TO 500-1000 FT AGL EARLY IN THE EVENING. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 12 TO 16 MPH...INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 MPH. MAX LVORI...........5. MAX ADI.............40. TIME (EDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM SKY (%).............64 63 70 78 84 83 WEATHER COV.........SCTTRD SCTTRD CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE WEATHER TYPE........RNSHWR RNSHWR TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TEMP................85 83 81 80 79 78 RH..................71 77 80 82 84 87 20 FT WIND..........SE 10 SE 8 S 6 S 6 S 5 S 5 20 FT WIND GUST.....17 14 13 10 10 10 LVORI...............3 3 3 4 4 5 ADI.................40 26 16 15 14 10 .FRIDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 89. MIN HUMIDITY........69 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...BECOMING SOUTH AROUND 10 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. MIXING HEIGHT.......800-1200 FT AGL EARLY...INCREASING TO 2400-3200 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH...BECOMING SOUTHEAST AROUND 10 MPH. MAX LVORI...........6. MAX ADI.............26. TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).............82 81 74 72 72 75 WEATHER COV.........CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE LIKELY LIKELY WEATHER TYPE........TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TEMP................78 78 81 86 87 86 RH..................88 89 81 71 69 70 20 FT WIND..........SW 2 SW 3 SW 2 S 5 S 9 S 10 20 FT WIND GUST.....4 5 5 8 12 15 LVORI...............5 6 3 3 3 3 ADI.................7 6 21 23 21 17 .FRIDAY NIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY. MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 77. MAX HUMIDITY........88 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH...BECOMING SOUTHWEST 7 TO 10 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. MIXING HEIGHT.......1400-2400 FT AGL EARLY...DECREASING TO 2000-400 FT AGL OVERNIGHT. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 8 TO 14 MPH. MAX LVORI...........5. MAX ADI.............17. TIME (EDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM SKY (%).............77 79 79 81 85 85 WEATHER COV.........LIKELY CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE LIKELY LIKELY WEATHER TYPE........TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TEMP................84 81 81 81 81 79 RH..................75 82 83 83 83 87 20 FT WIND..........S 9 S 8 S 7 SW 7 SW 6 SW 6 20 FT WIND GUST.....15 15 12 11 10 10 LVORI...............3 4 4 4 4 5 ADI.................17 10 8 9 12 11 .SATURDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 88. MIN HUMIDITY........69 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. MIXING HEIGHT.......400-1200 FT AGL EARLY...INCREASING TO 3400-5200 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 10 TO 15 MPH EARLY...BECOMING SOUTHWEST 8 TO 10 MPH. MAX LVORI...........4. MAX ADI.............41. TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).............86 87 87 86 83 85 WEATHER COV.........LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY WEATHER TYPE........TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TEMP................78 80 85 87 87 87 RH..................88 86 73 69 70 70 20 FT WIND..........SW 6 SW 6 SW 6 SW 6 SW 7 S 8 20 FT WIND GUST.....10 10 10 15 15 15 LVORI...............4 4 3 3 3 3 ADI.................12 19 38 39 31 18 $$ FORECASTER...PFAFF REQUESTED BY...DOUG MILLS TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE .TAG 20110707.HORNE.01/ILM