FNUS72 KILM 071931 FWSILM SPOT FORECAST FOR JUNIPER ROAD FIRE...NCFS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 331 PM EDT THU JUL 7 2011 FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1510 EDT ON JULY 07. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS. A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY REACH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE DISSIPATING ON SUNDAY. TROPICAL-LIKE MOISTURE MOVING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS WILL BRING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE WEEKEND. SOME OF THIS RAIN WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES. BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK ACROSS THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT MAY APPROACH THE AREA DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. NOTE...A SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET AROUND 25 KNOTS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TONIGHT. .REST OF THIS AFTERNOON... MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-90 PERCENT) WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S. MINIMUM RH 68 PERCENT. SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH... BECOMING SOUTH AROUND 10 MPH. LOCALLY GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS IN OR NEAR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY. MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 77. MAX HUMIDITY........95 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH EARLY...BECOMING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 6 TO 8 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. MIXING HEIGHT.......3100-4200 FT AGL EARLY...DECREASING TO 800-1000 FT AGL OVERNIGHT. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 10 TO 15 MPH...INCREASING TO 14 TO 18 MPH. MAX LVORI...........5. MAX ADI.............42. TIME (EDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM SKY (%).............65 63 71 81 88 86 WEATHER COV.........SCTTRD SCTTRD CHANCE CHANCE LIKELY LIKELY WEATHER TYPE........RNSHWR RNSHWR TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TEMP................86 82 80 79 78 77 RH..................71 78 83 86 88 91 20 FT WIND..........S 10 S 8 S 6 S 5 SW 5 S 5 20 FT WIND GUST.....15 12 10 10 10 10 LVORI...............3 3 4 5 5 5 ADI.................42 23 14 14 14 9 .FRIDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 89. MIN HUMIDITY........72 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. MIXING HEIGHT.......800-1200 FT AGL EARLY...INCREASING TO 2700-2800 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 12 TO 16 MPH...INCREASING TO 20 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. MAX LVORI...........5. MAX ADI.............47. TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).............83 80 80 79 74 74 WEATHER COV.........LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY CHANCE LIKELY LIKELY WEATHER TYPE........TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TEMP................77 79 81 85 86 86 RH..................91 87 82 73 72 72 20 FT WIND..........SW 5 S 4 S 5 S 8 S 8 S 10 20 FT WIND GUST.....10 8 9 12 12 15 LVORI...............5 5 3 3 3 3 ADI.................8 11 20 32 45 47 .FRIDAY NIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY. MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 76. MAX HUMIDITY........94 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH BECOMING SOUTHWEST 6 TO 9 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. MIXING HEIGHT.......1200-2400 FT AGL...DECREASING TO 400-700 FT AGL OVERNIGHT. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 10 TO 18 MPH. MAX LVORI...........6. MAX ADI.............39. TIME (EDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM SKY (%).............76 79 79 80 85 85 WEATHER COV.........LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY WEATHER TYPE........TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TEMP................83 80 78 77 77 76 RH..................76 85 91 92 92 92 20 FT WIND..........S 9 S 8 SW 6 SW 6 SW 6 SW 6 20 FT WIND GUST.....15 14 13 13 10 10 LVORI...............3 4 5 6 5 6 ADI.................39 11 9 8 10 9 .SATURDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 88. MIN HUMIDITY........68 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 7 TO 10 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. MIXING HEIGHT.......500-1200 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 3300-4900 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 10 TO 14 MPH. MAX LVORI...........5. MAX ADI.............28. TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).............86 88 88 86 79 81 WEATHER COV.........LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY WEATHER TYPE........TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TEMP................77 78 83 87 87 85 RH..................94 93 77 69 69 73 20 FT WIND..........SW 6 SW 6 SW 6 SW 9 SW 9 S 9 20 FT WIND GUST.....10 10 13 15 15 15 LVORI...............5 5 3 3 3 3 ADI.................10 18 27 28 27 24 $$ FORECASTER...PFAFF REQUESTED BY...SCOTT LUDLUM TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE .TAG 20110707.JUNIP.01/ILM