FNUS72 KILM 071853 FWSILM SPOT FORECAST FOR SIMMONS RD FIRE...NC FOREST SERVICE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 253 PM EDT THU JUL 7 2011 FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1419 EDT ON JULY 07. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP EACH DAY. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL DISSIPATE NEAR THE CAROLINA COAST THIS WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY TO RETURN TO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. NOTE...A SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET AROUND 20 KNOTS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TONIGHT. THE JET WILL MIX OUT AND WEAKEN FRIDAY MORNING. .REST OF THIS AFTERNOON... PARTLY CLOUDY (40-60 PERCENT) WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS POSSIBLE. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S WITH MINIMUM RH 45 PERCENT. LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS... BECOMING SOUTH AROUND 10M MPH. LOCALLY GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS IN OR NEAR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE EVENING...WITH DIMINISHING CHANCES OVERNIGHT. MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 73. MAX HUMIDITY........100 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. MIXING HEIGHT.......3600-5000 FT AGL...DECREASING TO 400-800 FT. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 8 TO 12 MPH...INCREASING TO 13 TO 17 MPH. MAX LVORI...........9. MAX ADI.............52. TIME (EDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM SKY (%).............71 74 77 81 84 78 WEATHER COV.........NUMRUS NUMRUS CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE WEATHER TYPE........RNSHWR RNSHWR TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TEMP................87 82 78 75 74 73 RH..................64 76 86 93 96 100 20 FT WIND..........S 8 SE 3 S 3 S 2 SW 3 SW 2 20 FT WIND GUST.....12 6 5 5 5 5 LVORI...............1 4 5 6 7 9 ADI.................52 9 10 9 7 4 .FRIDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT). A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 92. MIN HUMIDITY........59 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...BECOMING SOUTH 5 TO 8 MPH EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. MIXING HEIGHT.......300-900 FT AGL EARLY...INCREASING TO 4300-5100 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 10 TO 15 MPH...BECOMING SOUTHEAST 7 TO 11 MPH. MAX LVORI...........9. MAX ADI.............37. TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).............71 66 74 75 70 73 WEATHER COV.........CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE WEATHER TYPE........TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TEMP................73 76 81 87 89 90 RH..................100 95 79 65 60 59 20 FT WIND..........SW 2 SW 2 SW 2 SW 2 S 4 S 5 20 FT WIND GUST.....5 5 5 5 5 10 LVORI...............9 6 4 3 2 2 ADI.................3 5 17 37 31 29 .FRIDAY NIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 75. MAX HUMIDITY........96 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH...BECOMING SOUTHWEST 5 TO 10 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. MIXING HEIGHT.......2500-4200 FT AGL...DECREASING TO 2000-700 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 12 TO 15 MPH BECOMING SOUTHWEST 6 TO 10 MPH. MAX LVORI...........6. MAX ADI.............23. TIME (EDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM SKY (%).............76 81 81 83 88 88 WEATHER COV.........CHANCE LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY WEATHER TYPE........TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TEMP................88 83 79 77 76 75 RH..................63 75 85 91 93 94 20 FT WIND..........S 5 S 5 S 5 S 5 SW 5 SW 5 20 FT WIND GUST.....10 10 10 10 10 10 LVORI...............2 4 5 6 6 6 ADI.................23 5 5 5 6 4 .SATURDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 89. MIN HUMIDITY........63 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 5 TO 6 MPH IN THE MORNING...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. MIXING HEIGHT.......400-1900 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 3200-4900 FT AGL IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 5 TO 7 MPH. MAX LVORI...........7. MAX ADI.............20. TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).............88 88 88 83 69 71 WEATHER COV.........LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY WEATHER TYPE........TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TEMP................75 77 82 86 88 88 RH..................96 95 81 69 64 63 20 FT WIND..........SW 5 SW 5 W 5 W 4 W 3 SW 1 20 FT WIND GUST.....10 10 10 5 5 LVORI...............7 6 3 3 2 2 ADI.................5 8 17 18 18 17 $$ FORECASTER...PFAFF REQUESTED BY...LLOYD BROWN TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE .TAG 20110707.SIMMO.02/ILM