FNUS74 KEPZ 090411
FWSEPZ

FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR DONALDSON...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1011 PM MDT FRI JUL 8 2011

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 2054 MDT ON JULY 08.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY VARIABLE AND GUSTY WINDS...

...GUSTY WINDS ALSO POSSIBLE NEAR VIRGA SHAFTS AND SIGNIFICANT CLOUD
BUILD UPS...

.DISCUSSION...
MID DAY AND AFTERNOON CLOUD BUILDUPS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY FOR
THE BURNED AREA.  WESTERN DIVISIONS STAND BEST CHANCES FOR ISOLATED STORMS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AS STRONGEST CONVECTION REMAINS EXPECTED
OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS JUST WEST OF THE BURN. EASTERLY WINDS ALOFT
PICK UP SLIGHTLY ON SUNDAY AND SHOULD KEEP STORMS FURTHER TO THE
WEST...AWAY FROM WESTERN DIVISIONS.


HIGH PRESSURE THAT WAS CENTERED OVER THE BURN SITE...HAS BEGUN TO SHIFT
SLOWLY NORTHEAST AND IS NOW CENTERED OVER NORTHERN TEXAS.  THIS WILL
START TO ALLOW THE MONSOON MOISTURE STREAM NOW OVER ARIZONA...TO SHIFT
SLOWLY EASTWARD CLOSER TO BURN SITE LATER THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK. AS A RESULT...LOOK FOR AN INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
EARLY NEXT WEEK.


.SATURDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (10-20 PERCENT) IN THE
                    MORNING...THEN PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT)
                    MID DAY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
                    NEAR WESTERN DIVISIONS OF THE BURN SCAR.
CWR WESTERN DIVISIONS.............10 PERCENT
CWR WESTERN DIVISIONS.............0 PERCENT.
RIDGE TOP MAX TEMPERATURE.........89-93.
CANYON BOTTOM MAX TEMPERATURE.....94-97
RIDGE TOP MIN HUMIDITY............18-21 PERCENT.
CANYON BOTTOM MIN HUMIDITY........13-17 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LOCAL CANYON DRAINAGES UNTIL 0800L...OTHERWISE
                    EAST-NORTHEAST 4 TO 6 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    SOUTHEAST 8 TO 11 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON WITH
                    OCCASIONAL RIDGE TOP GUSTS TO 17 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......300 FT AGL INCREASING TO 15800 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST AROUND 8 KNOTS.


.SATURDAY NIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (45-55 PERCENT) WITH ISOLATED
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY NEAR WESTERN DIVISIONS
                    OF THE BURN SCAR....THEN MOSTLY CLEAR (10-20 PERCENT)
                    ALL AREAS.
CWR WESTERN DIVISIONS.............0 PERCENT.
CWR EASTERN DIVISIONS.............0 PERCENT.
RIDGE TOP MIN TEMPERATURE.........64-69.
CANYON BOTTOM MIN TEMPERATURE.....58-63
RIDGE TOP MAX HUMIDITY............47-53 PERCENT.
CANYON BOTTOM MAX HUMIDITY........55-60 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LOCAL CANYON DRAINAGES DEVELOPING
                    AFTER 2100L. UPPER PORTION OF HILLSIDES AND RIDGE
                    TOPS WILL SEE SOUTHEAST 6 TO 10 MPH...DECREASING
                    AND SHIFTING NORTHEAST 3 TO 6 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......14500 FT AGL DECREASING TO 300-600 FT AGL IN
                    THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST AROUND 11 KNOTS.


.SUNDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (10-20 PERCENT) IN THE
                    MORNING...THEN PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT)
                    MID DAY THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
CWR WESTERN DIVISIONS.............0 PERCENT
CWR WESTERN DIVISIONS.............0 PERCENT.
RIDGE TOP MAX TEMPERATURE.........90-94.
CANYON BOTTOM MAX TEMPERATURE.....95-98
RIDGE TOP MIN HUMIDITY............17-20 PERCENT.
CANYON BOTTOM MIN HUMIDITY........12-16 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LOCAL CANYON DRAINAGES UNTIL 0800L...OTHERWISE
                    EAST-NORTHEAST 4 TO 6 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    SOUTHEAST 6 TO 9 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON WITH
                    OCCASIONAL RIDGE TOP GUSTS TO 15 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......600 FT AGL INCREASING TO 11100-12200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST AROUND 8 KNOTS.


$$
FORECASTER...TRIPOLI
REQUESTED BY...BRIAN ANDERSON
REASON FOR REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20110708.DONAL.01/EPZ