FNUS72 KILM 081852 FWSILM SPOT FORECAST FOR SIMMONS RD FIRE...NC FOREST SERVICE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC 252 PM EDT FRI JUL 8 2011 FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1444 EDT ON JULY 08. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS INTO THE WEEKEND. TROPICAL MOISTURE MOVING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS WILL BRING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE WEEKEND. SOME OF THIS RAIN WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES. BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK ACROSS THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT MAY APPROACH THE AREA DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WIND PROFILE ANALYSIS/FIRE CONTROL OVER FLAT TERRAIN IS FAVORABLE. .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). OCCASIONAL RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY EARLY IN THE EVENING...THEN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 74. MAX HUMIDITY........93 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 8 MPH UNTIL EARLY MORNING...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. MIXING HEIGHT.......4400 FT AGL...DECREASING TO 1000-1900 FT AGL EARLY IN THE EVENING. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 8 TO 16 MPH...BECOMING SOUTHWEST 18 TO 20 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. EYE LEVEL WINDS.....SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 8 MPH UNTIL EARLY MORNING...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. MAX LVORI...........5. MAX ADI.............31. TIME (EDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM SKY (%).............72 71 76 79 83 95 WEATHER COV.........OCNL OCNL CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE WEATHER TYPE........RAIN RAIN TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TEMP................85 81 78 77 76 75 RH..................65 79 85 87 90 94 20 FT WIND..........S 6 S 6 S 5 S 5 S 4 S 3 20 FT WIND GUST.....15 10 10 10 5 5 EYE LEVEL WIND......S 5 S 4 S 4 S 4 S 3 S 2 EYE LVL WND GST.....15 10 10 10 5 5 LVORI...............2 3 4 5 5 5 ADI.................25 31 31 11 12 12 .SATURDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 89. MIN HUMIDITY........59 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...BECOMING NORTHWEST 5 TO 6 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. MIXING HEIGHT.......1200-2700 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 3500-4300 FT AGL EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 13 TO 22 MPH...DECREASING TO AROUND 9 MPH LATE. EYE LEVEL WINDS.....LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...BECOMING NORTHWEST 5 TO 6 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. MAX LVORI...........5. MAX ADI.............53. TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).............95 85 88 83 69 71 WEATHER COV.........CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY WEATHER TYPE........TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TEMP................74 77 82 87 89 89 RH..................100 86 72 63 60 59 20 FT WIND..........SW 3 SW 3 SW 4 W 5 W 5 NW 5 20 FT WIND GUST.....5 5 10 10 EYE LEVEL WIND......SW 2 SW 2 SW 3 W 4 W 4 NW 4 EYE LVL WND GST.....5 5 10 10 LVORI...............5 5 4 1 1 1 ADI.................14 29 15 53 46 46 .SATURDAY NIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT). SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY EARLY IN THE EVENING...THEN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE EVENING. MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 73. MAX HUMIDITY........96 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........NORTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. MIXING HEIGHT.......MISSING. TRANSPORT WINDS..... EYE LEVEL WINDS.....NORTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. MAX LVORI...........9. MAX ADI.............40. TIME (EDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM SKY (%).............71 68 68 69 72 72 WEATHER COV.........LIKELY CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE WEATHER TYPE........TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TEMP................87 82 79 76 75 74 RH..................65 77 85 90 93 94 20 FT WIND..........N 4 NE 3 NE 2 E 2 E 2 E 2 20 FT WIND GUST.....5 5 EYE LEVEL WIND......N 3 NE 2 NE 2 E 1 E 1 E 2 EYE LVL WND GST.....5 5 LVORI...............3 6 7 8 8 8 ADI.................40 0 0 0 0 0 .SUNDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (60-70 PERCENT). A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE MORNING. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 92. MIN HUMIDITY........55 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...BECOMING SOUTHEAST 5 TO 6 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. MIXING HEIGHT.......MISSING. TRANSPORT WINDS..... EYE LEVEL WINDS.....LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...BECOMING SOUTHEAST 5 TO 6 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING. MAX LVORI...........9. MAX ADI.............0. TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).............73 76 63 59 55 54 WEATHER COV.........CHANCE S CHC S CHC S CHC S CHC S CHC WEATHER TYPE........TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TEMP................73 77 84 90 92 92 RH..................96 87 72 60 56 56 20 FT WIND..........E 3 NE 4 E 5 E 5 E 5 E 5 20 FT WIND GUST.....5 5 10 10 10 EYE LEVEL WIND......E 2 NE 3 E 4 E 4 E 4 E 4 EYE LVL WND GST.....5 5 10 10 10 LVORI...............9 8 4 3 3 3 ADI.................0 0 0 0 0 0 $$ FORECASTER...KEEBLER REQUESTED BY...LLOYD BROWN TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE .TAG 20110708.SIMMO.04/ILM