FNUS72 KJAX 080926 FWSJAX SPOT FORECAST FOR IMPASSABLE BAY...USDA-FOREST SERVICE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL 526 AM EDT FRI JUL 8 2011 FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 0506 EDT ON JULY 08. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND DAYTIME HEATING ARE EXPECTED TO LEAD TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP BY MID TO LATE MORNING...WITH ACTIVITY BECOMING NUMEROUS IN THE AFTERNOON. ON SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH THE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA...PLENTIFUL MOISTURE COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL RESULT IN NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS TODAY WILL LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST...INCREASING TO AROUND 10-15 MPH IN THE AFTERNON WITH GUSTS NEAR 15-20 MPH POSSIBLE. WINDS MAY ALSO BE LOCALLY STRONG AND GUSTY NEAR STORMS. THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE WILL BE DOMINATE TODAY AND SATURDAY AS IT PROGRESSES INLAND. RH'S ARE FORECAST TO BE WELL ABOVE CRITICAL VALUES. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE MORNING...THEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 90. MIN HUMIDITY........56 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST 5 TO 12 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. LAL.................1 UNTIL 0800...THEN 3. MIXING HEIGHT.......1000-1800 FT AGL INCREASING TO 3300-4900 FT AGL LATE IN THE MORNING. MIXING WINDS........SOUTH 5 TO 12 MPH INCREASING TO 14 TO 16 MPH EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. DISPERSION INDEX....48. CHANCE OF PCPN......60-70 PERCENT. TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).........79 76 78 78 78 78 WEATHER COV.....S CHC CHANCE CHANCE LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TEMP............74 76 83 88 90 89 RH..............90 86 71 61 56 58 20 FT WIND......S 3 S 3 SW 5 SW 8 SW 10 SW 12 20 FT WIND GUST.5 10 10 15 15 15 MIX HGT (FT)....900 1800 1800 3400 4900 4900 TRANSPORT WIND..S 5 SW 7 SW 7 S 12 S 16 S 16 DISPERSION INDX.2 16 13 31 48 48 CHC OF PCPN (%).20 30 50 60 70 70 LAL.............1 2 3 3 3 3 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY EARLY IN THE EVENING...THEN CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE EVENING. MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 73. MAX HUMIDITY........100 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH UNTIL EARLY MORNING BECOMING LIGHT. LAL.................3. MIXING HEIGHT.......1600-3300 FT AGL DECREASING TO 300-1100 FT AGL LATE IN THE EVENING. MIXING WINDS........SOUTH 6 TO 14 MPH. DISPERSION INDEX....4. CHANCE OF PCPN......60 PERCENT. LVORI...............6. TIME (EDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM SKY (%).........79 82 82 78 75 75 WEATHER COV.....LIKELY CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE WEATHER TYPE....TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TEMP............86 82 78 77 75 74 RH..............65 76 86 90 92 95 20 FT WIND......SW 10 S 7 S 7 S 6 S 5 S 3 20 FT WIND GUST. 10 10 5 MIX HGT (FT)....3300 1600 1600 1000 300 300 TRANSPORT WIND..S 14 S 9 S 9 S 7 S 6 S 6 LVORI...........6 6 6 6 6 6 DISPERSION INDX.34 7 7 5 4 3 CHC OF PCPN (%).60 40 40 40 30 30 LAL.............3 3 3 3 2 2 .SATURDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING... THEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 92. MIN HUMIDITY........58 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST 5 TO 10 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING. LAL.................3 UNTIL 0800...THEN 4. MIXING HEIGHT.......1100-2600 FT AGL INCREASING TO 3400-3900 FT AGL EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. MIXING WINDS........SOUTHWEST 9 TO 17 MPH. DISPERSION INDEX....47. CHANCE OF PCPN......60 PERCENT. $$ FORECASTER...SHASHY REQUESTED BY...PETER MYERS TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE .TAG 20110708.IMPAS.01/JAX