FNUS72 KMHX 081137 FWSMHX SPOT FORECAST FOR PAINS BAY...NC FOREST RESOURCES NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 737 AM EDT FRI JUL 8 2011 FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 0727 EDT ON JULY 08. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE, CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... SHOWERS AND TSTMS LIKELY THROUGH THE DAY. ONE PERIOD OF ACTIVITY EARLY THIS MORNING...THEN MORE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE AREA FROM OFFSHORE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE INLAND. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY...STALL OVER THE AREA SUNDAY...THEN MOVE SOUTHEAST MONDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH MID WEEK. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 88. MIN HUMIDITY........68 PERCENT. 20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS 14 TO 19 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......5000 FT AGL IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 16 TO 21 MPH. LVORI...............4. TIME (EDT) 7 AM 9 AM 11 AM 1 PM 3 PM 5 PM SKY (%).............73 70 60 67 73 83 WEATHER COV.........LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY WEATHER TYPE........TSTORM RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR TEMP................78 81 85 86 87 86 RH..................91 79 70 70 68 70 20 FT WIND (MPH)....SW 10 SW 12 S 14 S 12 S 14 S 17 20 FT WIND GUST.....15 20 25 20 20 25 LVORI...............4 3 3 3 3 3 HAINES INDEX........3 3 3 3 3 3 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY EARLY IN THE EVENING...THEN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 76. MAX HUMIDITY........88 PERCENT. 20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 14 TO 19 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......3700 FT AGL...DECREASING TO 300-1700 FT AGL IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 16 TO 21 MPH. LVORI...............4. TIME (EDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM SKY (%).............83 84 84 84 87 87 WEATHER COV.........LIKELY LIKELY CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE WEATHER TYPE........RNSHWR RNSHWR TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TEMP................85 82 80 79 78 77 RH..................72 78 82 83 86 88 20 FT WIND (MPH)....S 17 S 16 S 14 SW 11 SW 11 SW 12 20 FT WIND GUST.....25 25 20 20 20 20 LVORI...............3 3 4 4 4 5 HAINES INDEX........3 3 4 4 4 4 .SATURDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE MORNING...THEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY EARLY IN THE MORNING. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 86. MIN HUMIDITY........66 PERCENT. 20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 7 TO 12 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH IN THE MORNING...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......4200 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 20 TO 28 MPH...DECREASING TO 13 TO 17 MPH EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON...THEN BECOMING NORTH 12 TO 13 MPH LATE. LVORI...............3. TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).............89 95 91 88 82 79 WEATHER COV.........CHANCE LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY WEATHER TYPE........TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TEMP................76 78 81 84 85 85 RH..................90 85 77 69 67 67 20 FT WIND (MPH)....SW 11 W 7 W 5 W 4 W 3 NW 4 20 FT WIND GUST.....20 10 5 5 5 LVORI...............5 4 3 3 3 3 HAINES INDEX........4 3 3 3 3 3 $$ FORECASTER...MERRELL REQUESTED BY...CHUCK CREDLE TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE .TAG 20110708.PAINS.01/MHX