FNUS75 KGJT 091502
FWSGJT

SPOT FORECAST FOR DRY PARK...GMUG FS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
902 AM MDT SAT JUL 9 2011

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 0827 MDT ON JULY 09.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE PLUME HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE
MORE SOUTH AND MORE DIRECTLY OVER THE BURN AREA TODAY. A WEAK
DISTURBANCE IN NORTHERN ARIZONA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO WESTERN
COLORADO TODAY AND SHOULD TRIGGER ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (50%) UNTIL 1100...THEN BECOMING
                    MOSTLY (70-80%) BY 1300. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1100...THEN SCATTERED
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1300.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....88-93 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........19-24%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......DOWNSLOPE/DOWENVALLEY 3 MPH UNTIL 1100...THEN
                    UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 5 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
                    NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR BECOMING FAIR BY 1200...THEN INCREASING TO
                    EXCELLENT IN THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW.
LAL.................1 UNTIL 1100...THEN 2 UNTIL 1300...THEN 4.
MIXING HEIGHT.......5000 FT AGL AT 1200...RISING TO 12500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 9 MPH AT 1200 INCREASING TO 15 MPH.


.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (80-90%) UNTIL 2200...THEN MOSTLY CLOUDY
                    (70%). SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
                    UNTIL 2100...THEN ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....57-62 F.
MAX HUMIDITY........65-75%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST
                    AFTER 2100...THEN DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 5 MPH
                    AFTER MIDNIGHT. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
                    EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....VERY GOOD UNTIL 2000...THEN DECREASING TO POOR
                    BY 2200.
HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW.
LAL.................4 UNTIL 2100...THEN 2.
MIXING HEIGHT.......10500 FT AGL UNTIL 2000...THEN DECREASING TO
                    500 FT AGL BY 2200 AWAY FROM ANY SHOWER OR STORM.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 10 MPH UNTIL 2000...THEN BECOMING
                    DOWNVALLEY 5 MPH BY MIDNIGHT.

.SUNDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (50-60%) UNTIL 1100...THEN BECOMING
                    MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80%). ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 1300...THEN SCATTERED
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....88-93 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........18-23%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 3-5 MPH UNTIL 1100...THEN
                    BECOMING UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 5 MPH. OCCASIONALLY
                    SOUTHWEST 12 MPH AFTER 1600. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
                    WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR  BECOMING FAIR BY 1200...THEN INCREASING TO
                    EXCELLENT IN THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........4 LOW.
LAL.................2 UNTIL 1300...THEN 4.
MIXING HEIGHT.......7000 FT AGL AT 1200...RISING TO 12000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 10 MPH AT 1200...INCREASING TO 16 MPH
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.

$$
FORECASTER...JIM DANIELS
REQUESTED BY...LUKE ODOM
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20110709.DRYPA.01/GJT