FNUS72 KILM 090939 FWSILM SPOT FORECAST FOR SIMMONS RD FIRE...NC FOREST SERVICE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 539 AM EDT SAT JUL 9 2011 FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 0534 EDT ON JULY 09. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS THIS WEEKEND. TROPICAL MOISTURE MOVING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS WILL BRING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF THIS RAIN WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FROM THE NORTH LATE TODAY...STALLING OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST SUNDAY AND THEN DISSIPATING. BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK ACROSS THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER COLD FRONT MAY APPROACH THE AREA DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WIND PROFILE ANALYSIS/FIRE CONTROL OVER FLAT TERRAIN IS FAVORABLE. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 89. MIN HUMIDITY........66 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH IN THE MORNING...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE...THEN BECOMING NORTH AROUND 5 MPH EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. MIXING HEIGHT.......1100-1200 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 2500-4100 FT AGL LATE IN THE MORNING. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 12 TO 20 MPH...BECOMING NORTHEAST 5 TO 9 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING. MAX LVORI...........5. MAX ADI.............26. TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).............94 93 73 68 73 74 WEATHER COV.........S CHC S CHC CHANCE CHANCE LIKELY CHANCE WEATHER TYPE........TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TEMP................75 77 82 86 87 88 RH..................98 91 81 72 67 66 20 FT WIND..........SW 4 SW 4 W 4 NW 4 N 4 NE 3 20 FT WIND GUST.....5 5 5 5 5 5 LVORI...............5 5 4 3 3 3 ADI.................14 8 8 26 22 22 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (55-65 PERCENT)...THEN BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT). A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE EVENING...THEN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 73. MAX HUMIDITY........98 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. MIXING HEIGHT.......900-2500 FT AGL...DECREASING TO 300-400 FT AGL AFTER MIDNIGHT. TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 5 TO 7 MPH. MAX LVORI...........9. MAX ADI.............18. TIME (EDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM SKY (%).............72 62 51 46 42 45 WEATHER COV.........CHANCE CHANCE S CHC S CHC S CHC S CHC WEATHER TYPE........TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TEMP................86 82 79 77 76 74 RH..................70 81 89 93 94 98 20 FT WIND..........NE 2 NE 2 E 2 E 2 E 2 NE 2 20 FT WIND GUST.....5 5 5 5 5 5 LVORI...............3 4 5 6 6 9 ADI.................18 16 16 3 4 4 .SUNDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (45-55 PERCENT). MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 93. MIN HUMIDITY........44 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...BECOMING EAST 5 TO 7 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. MIXING HEIGHT.......300-1200 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 3600-5000 FT AGL LATE IN THE MORNING. TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 7 TO 12 MPH. MAX LVORI...........6. MAX ADI.............51. TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).............49 59 53 43 36 37 WEATHER COV.........S CHC S CHC S CHC S CHC S CHC S CHC WEATHER TYPE........TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TEMP................74 75 81 87 91 92 RH..................95 86 66 53 47 44 20 FT WIND..........E 3 E 5 E 6 E 6 E 6 E 5 20 FT WIND GUST.....5 10 10 10 10 10 LVORI...............6 4 3 1 1 1 ADI.................5 8 10 51 39 39 $$ FORECASTER...KREITNER REQUESTED BY...LLOYD BROWN TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE .TAG 20110709.SIMMO.01/ILM