FNUS72 KILM 091856 FWSILM SPOT FORECAST FOR SIMMONS ROAD FIRE...NC FOREST SERVICE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 256 PM EDT SAT JUL 9 2011 FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1427 EDT ON JULY 09. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... A WEAK COLD FRONT LAYING EAST TO WEST IS MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. THE FRONT WILL STALL OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST SUNDAY AND DISSIPATE. BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK ACROSS THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER COLD FRONT MAY APPROACH THE AREA DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WIND PROFILE ANALYSIS/FIRE CONTROL OVER FLAT TERRAIN IS FAVORABLE. .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (55-65 PERCENT)...THEN BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY (35-45 PERCENT). SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE EVENING. MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 73. MAX HUMIDITY........96 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE EVENING. MIXING HEIGHT.......1300-3100 FT AGL...DECREASING TO 300-400 FT AGL LATE IN THE EVENING. TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST AROUND 5 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING...BECOMING LIGHT...THEN BECOMING WEST AROUND 10 MPH LATE IN THE EVENING...BECOMING LIGHT. MAX LVORI...........9. MAX ADI.............15. TIME (EDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM SKY (%).............64 51 39 36 40 39 WEATHER COV.........SCTTRD WEATHER TYPE........TSTORM NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP................88 84 79 77 77 75 RH..................58 66 75 83 90 96 20 FT WIND..........NE 4 NE 3 E 2 E 2 E 2 E 3 20 FT WIND GUST.....5 5 5 5 5 LVORI...............2 3 4 5 7 9 ADI.................15 2 2 5 0 0 .SUNDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (30-40 PERCENT). MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 93. MIN HUMIDITY........45 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...BECOMING EAST 5 TO 6 MPH UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON...THEN BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE LATE. MIXING HEIGHT.......300-1600 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 6300-7300 FT AGL LATE IN THE MORNING. TRANSPORT WINDS.....LIGHT WINDS...BECOMING EAST 9 TO 10 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING...THEN BECOMING LIGHT EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. MAX LVORI...........7. MAX ADI.............42. TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).............39 40 39 38 32 32 WEATHER COV......... WEATHER TYPE........NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP................75 78 82 88 91 92 RH..................91 77 68 54 48 45 20 FT WIND..........E 3 E 4 E 5 E 5 E 4 E 3 20 FT WIND GUST.....5 5 10 10 5 5 LVORI...............7 3 3 1 2 2 ADI.................0 21 21 42 11 11 .SUNDAY NIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (20-30 PERCENT). MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 74. MAX HUMIDITY........92 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 6 MPH IN THE EVENING...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. MIXING HEIGHT.......7300 FT AGL...DECREASING TO 400-900 FT AGL EARLY IN THE EVENING. TRANSPORT WINDS.....LIGHT WINDS...BECOMING SOUTH 12 TO 17 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING. MAX LVORI...........6. MAX ADI.............17. TIME (EDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM SKY (%).............32 30 22 19 18 28 WEATHER COV......... WEATHER TYPE........NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP................90 85 80 77 75 74 RH..................48 61 75 85 88 91 20 FT WIND..........SE 4 SE 5 S 5 S 4 S 2 S 2 20 FT WIND GUST.....5 10 10 5 5 5 LVORI...............2 3 4 4 5 5 ADI.................17 6 6 8 6 6 .MONDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (30-40 PERCENT). MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 94. MIN HUMIDITY........48 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...BECOMING SOUTHWEST 5 TO 6 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. MIXING HEIGHT.......400-1300 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 6100-7200 FT AGL LATE IN THE MORNING. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 9 TO 13 MPH. MAX LVORI...........6. MAX ADI.............58. TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).............31 34 37 37 35 35 WEATHER COV......... WEATHER TYPE........NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP................75 77 84 90 92 93 RH..................92 87 68 54 49 49 20 FT WIND..........S 2 S 2 S 4 S 5 S 5 SW 5 20 FT WIND GUST.....5 5 5 10 10 10 LVORI...............6 4 3 1 1 1 ADI.................5 16 16 47 50 50 $$ FORECASTER...LEBO REQUESTED BY...LLOYD BROWN TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE .TAG 20110709.SIMMO.02/ILM