FNUS74 KEPZ 101702
FWSEPZ

FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR BEAR CANYON...NM-SDC
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1102 AM MDT SUN JUL 10 2011

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1041 MDT ON JULY 10.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THE NEXT DAY OR TWO
ACROSS THE BURN AREA AS AN UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD AND BRINGS
IN A DEEPER SOUTHERLY FLOW.  LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS ALREADY IN PLACE AND
AS THE MID LEVELS MOISTEN UP...THE THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
WILL INCREASE WITH MONDAY AND TUESDAY SEEING THE BEST CHANCE FOR
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF OVER A QUARTER INCH. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
LIGHT EXCEPT NEAR THUNDERSTORMS THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (50-60 PERCENT). SCATTERED
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
CWR.................50 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....84-86.
MIN HUMIDITY........23-27 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH-SOUTHEAST 6 TO 12 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......11800-13700 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST AROUND 8 KNOTS.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (50-60 PERCENT). SCATTERED
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING.
CWR.................40 PERCENT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....52-56.
MAX HUMIDITY........75-80 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH 5 TO 10 MPH BECOMING NORTHEAST 3 TO 8 MPH
                    BY MIDNIGHT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......13200 FT AGL DECREASING TO 200-800 FT AGL IN
                    THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST AROUND 11 KNOTS.



$$
FORECASTER...GRZYWACZ
REQUESTED BY...IC
REASON FOR REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20110710.BEARC.01/EPZ