FNUS72 KJAX 100934 FWSJAX SPOT FORECAST FOR IMPASSABLE BAY...USDA-FOREST SERVICE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL 534 AM EDT SUN JUL 10 2011 FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 0508 EDT ON JULY 10. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN JUST NORTH OF THE AREA TODAY THROUGH MONDAY THEN DISSIPATE. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A MOIST AIRMASS AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL AGAIN LEAD TO SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WITH BEST CHANCES IN THE AFTERNOON. THE MAIN CONCERNS WITH STORMS WILL BE CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS...WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. LIGHT WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME VARIABLE AT TIMES IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON THEN BECOME SOUTHWEST AGAIN BY LATE AFTERNOON AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH. GUSTY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SLIGHTLY LOWER RAIN CHANCES ARE ANTICIPATED ON MONDAY AS DRIER AIR STARTS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-80 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG EARLY IN THE MORNING. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING...THEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 92. MIN HUMIDITY........59 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST 5 TO 7 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. LAL.................1 UNTIL 0800...THEN 3 UNTIL 1400...THEN 4. MIXING HEIGHT.......700-2300 FT AGL INCREASING TO 3400 FT AGL EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. MIXING WINDS........SOUTHWEST 6 TO 8 MPH. DISPERSION INDEX....22. CHANCE OF PCPN......60 PERCENT. TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).........62 64 66 70 86 88 WEATHER COV.....S CHC CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE LIKELY LIKELY WEATHER TYPE....RN/FG TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TEMP............73 75 84 89 92 90 RH..............100 98 77 65 59 60 20 FT WIND......W 0 W 1 W 2 SW 3 SW 5 SW 7 20 FT WIND GUST.5 5 5 7 9 MIX HGT (FT)....400 1200 1500 2300 3400 3400 TRANSPORT WIND..SW 6 SW 7 SW 7 SW 7 SW 7 SW 7 DISPERSION INDX.3 11 11 21 24 24 CHC OF PCPN (%).20 40 50 50 70 70 LAL.............1 3 3 3 4 4 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY IN THE EVENING... THEN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT. PATCHY FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT. MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 73. MAX HUMIDITY........100 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 7 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING BECOMING LIGHT. LAL.................4 UNTIL 2000...THEN 3 UNTIL 0200...THEN 2. MIXING HEIGHT.......1600-3300 FT AGL DECREASING TO 300-900 FT AGL LATE IN THE EVENING. MIXING WINDS........SOUTHWEST 2 TO 8 MPH. DISPERSION INDEX....2. CHANCE OF PCPN......30-40 PERCENT. LVORI...............7. TIME (EDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM SKY (%).........87 80 79 79 65 60 WEATHER COV.....LIKELY CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE S CHC S CHC WEATHER TYPE....TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM RN/FG RN/FG TEMP............87 83 79 77 75 74 RH..............65 75 86 90 93 96 20 FT WIND......SW 7 SW 6 SW 3 SW 2 SW 2 SW 2 20 FT WIND GUST.10 10 5 5 5 4 MIX HGT (FT)....3300 1600 1600 900 300 300 TRANSPORT WIND..SW 8 SW 8 SW 8 SW 6 SW 3 SW 3 LVORI...........7 7 7 7 7 7 DISPERSION INDX.28 5 4 3 2 2 CHC OF PCPN (%).70 30 30 30 20 20 LAL.............4 3 3 3 2 2 .MONDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG EARLY IN THE MORNING. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE MORNING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 94. MIN HUMIDITY........51 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTH 5 TO 7 MPH EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. LAL.................1 UNTIL 0800...THEN 3 UNTIL 1400...THEN 4. MIXING HEIGHT.......700-1200 FT AGL INCREASING TO NEAR 5600 FT AGL. MIXING WINDS........SOUTHWEST 2 TO 10 MPH. DISPERSION INDEX....25. CHANCE OF PCPN......50-60 PERCENT. $$ FORECASTER...SHASHY REQUESTED BY...PETER MYERS TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE .TAG 20110710.IMPAS.01/JAX