FNUS74 KEPZ 180105
FWSEPZ

FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR JACK COMPLEX...WILDERNESS RD
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
705 PM MDT SUN JUL 17 2011

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1800 MDT ON JULY 17.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
SOUTHEAST FLOW SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING MOIST AIR INTO
THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THAT MOISTURE...COMBINED WITH
DAYTIME HEATING...WILL ALLOW A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE AREA EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER...STORMS WILL NOT
BE VERY NUMEROUS OR WIDESPREAD AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT STRETCHING FROM
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO NEW MEXICO WILL TEND TO SUPPRESS
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS AND WILL SWING AROUND FROM THE SOUTHEAST MONDAY TO SOUTHWEST ON
TUESDAY. SLIGHTLY WARMER TOMORROW AND TUESDAY WITH AFTERNOON HUMIDITY
FROM THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S AND MODERATE TO GOOD RECOVERY AT NIGHT.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (45-55 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
                    EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
CWR.................10 PERCENT THIS EVENING.
LAL.................2 EVENING...DECREASING TO 1 BY MIDNIGHT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....57-62.
MAX HUMIDITY........55-60 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHEAST AROUND 5 MPH...BECOMING LIGHT WITH
                    DRAINAGE WINDS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......7500 FT AGL DECREASING TO AROUND 500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST AROUND 12 KNOTS.


.MONDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (35-45 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
                    AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
CWR.................10 PERCENT.
LAL.................1 INCREASING TO 2 IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....81-86.
MIN HUMIDITY........25-30 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT EARLY...THEN SOUTHEAST 6 TO 11 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......500 FT AGL INCREASING TO 9800 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST AROUND 9 KNOTS.
VENTILATION.........GOOD (88200 KT-FT).


.MONDAY NIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (45-55 PERCENT). WIDELY
                    SCATTERED EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
CWR.................20 PERCENT.
LAL.................3 EVENING...THEN 1 BY MIDNIGHT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....55-60.
MAX HUMIDITY........58-63 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........BECOMING LIGHT WITH DRAINAGE WINDS.
MIXING HEIGHT.......7500 FT AGL DECREASING TO AROUND 500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST AROUND 13 KNOTS.


.TUESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (35-45 PERCENT).
CWR.................10 PERCENT.
LAL.................1 EARLY...2 IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....82-87.
MIN HUMIDITY........25-30 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT EARLY...THEN SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 4 TO 8 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......500 FT AGL INCREASING TO 9100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 5 KNOTS.
VENTILATION.........FAIR (45500 KT-FT).


$$
FORECASTER...PARK
REQUESTED BY...TESSA NICOLET
REASON FOR REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20110711.JACKC.01/EPZ