FNUS72 KILM 120940
FWSILM

SPOT FORECAST FOR SIMMONS ROAD FIRE...NC FOREST SERVICE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
540 AM EDT TUE JUL 12 2011

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 0530 EDT ON JULY 12.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM EDT
THIS EVENING...

.DISCUSSION...
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE AREA FROM THE EAST TODAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH WEDNESDAY AND MOVE SLOWLY
THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RIDGE IN FROM THE NORTH INTO THE WEEKEND WHILE THE FRONT IS
STALLED TO THE SOUTH.

WIND PROFILE ANALYSIS/FIRE CONTROL OVER FLAT TERRAIN IS FAVORABLE

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (50-60 PERCENT). AREAS OF SMOKE IN
                    THE MORNING. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 99.
MIN HUMIDITY........45 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 6 TO 9 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
                    WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......7000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 10 MPH.
MAX LVORI...........7.

TIME (EDT)          6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
SKY (%).............54     74     58     50     33     33
WEATHER COV.........AREAS  AREAS  AREAS         S CHC  S CHC
WEATHER TYPE........SMOKE  SMOKE  SMOKE  NONE   TSTORM TSTORM
TEMP................77     80     86     90     95     98
RH..................92     77     61     49     46     46
20 FT WIND..........SW 5   SW 5   SW 6   SW 6   SW 7   SW 7
20 FT WIND GUST.....10     10     10     15     15     15
LVORI...............7      4      2      2      2      1

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (35-45 PERCENT). A SLIGHT CHANCE
                    OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE
                    EVENING.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 77.
MAX HUMIDITY........93 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 5 TO 8 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
                    EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE
                    EVENING.
MIXING HEIGHT.......7000 FT AGL...DECREASING TO 400-1000 FT AGL AFTER SUNSET.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 9 MPH.
MAX LVORI...........6.

TIME (EDT)          6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
SKY (%).............34     35     37     39     41     43
WEATHER COV.........S CHC  S CHC
WEATHER TYPE........TSTORM TSTORM NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
TEMP................95     89     85     83     81     80
RH..................51     62     71     78     83     88
20 FT WIND..........SW 6   SW 6   SW 5   SW 5   SW 4   W 4
20 FT WIND GUST.....15     10     10     10     5      5
LVORI...............1      2      3      4      4      5

.WEDNESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (50-60 PERCENT). A CHANCE OF
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 100.
MIN HUMIDITY........42 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...BECOMING WEST 6 MPH
                    IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. GUSTY
                    AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
MIXING HEIGHT.......6800 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 10 MPH.
MAX LVORI...........6.

TIME (EDT)          6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
SKY (%).............45     47     51     55     59     62
WEATHER COV.........                            CHANCE CHANCE
WEATHER TYPE........NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   TSTORM TSTORM
TEMP................79     80     88     95     97     97
RH..................93     89     64     48     43     43
20 FT WIND..........W 3    W 3    W 4    W 4    W 5    W 5
20 FT WIND GUST.....5      5      5      5      10     10
LVORI...............6      6      3      2      1      1

$$
FORECASTER...RAN
REQUESTED BY...LLOYD BROWN
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20110712.SIMMO.01/ILM