FNUS72 KILM 130939 FWSILM SPOT FORECAST FOR SIMMONS ROAD FIRE...NC FOREST SERVICE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 539 AM EDT WED JUL 13 2011 FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 0529 EDT ON JULY 13. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. ...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING... .DISCUSSION... OPPRESSIVE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES INTO THE CAROLINAS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL EASE SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS AN EASTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT. WIND PROFILE ANALYSIS/FIRE CONTROL OVER FLAT TERRAIN IS QUESTIONABLE. MAXIMUM WIND NEAR 2000 FT DIRECTION NORTH SPEED 20 MPH. PROFILE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME FAVORABLE BY NOON. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (40-50 PERCENT). A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 100. MIN HUMIDITY........37 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...BECOMING WEST 5 TO 6 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. MIXING HEIGHT.......5800 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 12 MPH. MAX LVORI...........5. TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).............34 39 44 51 57 58 WEATHER COV......... CHANCE CHANCE WEATHER TYPE........NONE NONE NONE NONE TSTORM TSTORM TEMP................80 82 87 93 98 100 RH..................88 82 68 54 42 37 20 FT WIND..........NW 2 NW 2 NW 3 NW 4 W 5 W 5 20 FT WIND GUST.....5 5 5 10 10 LVORI...............5 4 3 1 1 2 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT). A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING... THEN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT. MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 75. MAX HUMIDITY........82 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE...THEN BECOMING NORTHWEST 5 TO 6 MPH LATE. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. MIXING HEIGHT.......5000 FT AGL...DECREASING TO 200-400 FT AGL AFTER SUNSET. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 6 TO 10 MPH...BECOMING NORTHEAST AROUND 10 MPH TOWARD DAYBREAK. MAX LVORI...........4. TIME (EDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM SKY (%).............60 62 64 66 68 69 WEATHER COV.........CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE S CHC S CHC WEATHER TYPE........TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TEMP................99 94 88 85 83 81 RH..................38 45 58 65 70 74 20 FT WIND..........W 4 W 3 NW 3 NW 2 NW 3 NW 4 20 FT WIND GUST.....5 5 5 5 5 5 LVORI...............2 2 3 3 3 3 .THURSDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 93. MIN HUMIDITY........52 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........EAST WINDS 6 TO 8 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. MIXING HEIGHT.......4000 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 18 MPH. MAX LVORI...........3. TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).............71 73 73 73 73 73 WEATHER COV.........S CHC ISOLTD ISOLTD ISOLTD SCTTRD SCTTRD WEATHER TYPE........TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TEMP................78 77 83 88 90 91 RH..................79 80 67 57 53 52 20 FT WIND..........N 5 NE 5 NE 6 NE 6 NE 6 E 6 20 FT WIND GUST.....10 10 10 10 15 10 LVORI...............3 3 3 1 1 1 $$ FORECASTER...RAN REQUESTED BY...LLOYD BROWN TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE .TAG 20110713.SIMMO.01/ILM