FNUS74 KLCH 171037 FWSLCH SPOT FORECAST FOR TOURBE...USF&WS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA 537 AM CDT SUN JUL 17 2011 IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL COMBINE WITH A VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE TO PRODUCE A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. RADAR SHOWS SMALL SHOWERS BEGINNING TO FORM OVER THE NORTHERN GULF AS OF 5:15 AM. THESE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE ONSHORE... EITHER OVER OR NEAR THE WILDFIRE SPOT THROUGH ABOUT 10 AM. THESE INITIAL SHOWERS WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHTNING. A BETTER CHANCE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ON SUNDAY LOOKS TO OCCUR AFTER 1 PM...WHEN AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE REGION. FREQUENT LIGHTNING ALONG WITH HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL AVERAGE AROUND 1/4 INCH AREA WIDE... HOWEVER ISOLATED AMOUNTS BETWEEN 1 AND 3 INCHES WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT). CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING...THEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 89. MIN HUMIDITY........61 PERCENT. EYE LEVEL WINDS.....LIGHT SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH THROUGH LATE MORNING...THEN BECOMING SOUTHWEST 5 TO 6 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......3200-4700 FT AGL. MIXING WINDS........WEST AROUND 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH 5 MPH BY LATE MORNING. WIND (20 FT)........ SLOPE/VALLEY.......LIGHT SOUTHWEST TO WEST AROUND 5 MPH THROUGH LATE MORNING...THEN BECOMING SOUTHWEST 5 TO 6 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. SMOKE DISPERSION....POOR EARLY IN THE MORNING BECOMING FAIR BY LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. TIME (CDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM SKY (%).........50 60 60 63 65 68 70 70 70 69 68 66 WEATHER COV.....CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY WEATHER TYPE....TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TEMP............78 78 80 82 85 87 87 88 88 88 88 88 RH..............93 91 85 80 70 65 63 61 61 61 63 63 20 FT WIND DIR..W W W W W W W W W SW S SW 20 FT WIND SPD..3 3 3 3 5 3 3 3 3 3 5 6 20 FT WIND GUST.5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 10 EYE LVL WND DIR.W W W W W W W W W SW S SW EYE LVL WND SPD.3 3 3 3 4 3 2 2 2 3 4 5 EYE LVL WND GST.5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 10 MIX HGT (KFT)...3.0 3.2 3.4 4.0 4.2 4.5 4.5 4.7 4.6 4.5 4.4 4.4 MIX HGT (KM)....0.9 1.0 1.0 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.3 TRANSP WIND DIR.W W W W SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW TRANSP WIND SPD.3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 5 5 5 4 TRANS SPD (M/S).1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 HAINES INDEX....2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT). CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE EVENING...THEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 78. MAX HUMIDITY........88 PERCENT. EYE LEVEL WINDS.....SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 7 MPH IN THE EVENING BECOMING LIGHT. HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......2500-3900 FT AGL. MIXING WINDS........WEST 2 TO 7 MPH. WIND (20 FT)........ SLOPE/VALLEY.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 7 MPH IN THE EVENING BECOMING LIGHT. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. SMOKE DISPERSION....POOR. .MONDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (60-70 PERCENT). CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING...THEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 88. MIN HUMIDITY........63 PERCENT. EYE LEVEL WINDS.....LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST 5 TO 8 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......2700-4300 FT AGL. MIXING WINDS........SOUTHWEST 2 TO 5 MPH. WIND (20 FT)........ SLOPE/VALLEY.......LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST 5 TO 8 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. SMOKE DISPERSION....POOR. $$ FORECASTER...RUA REQUESTED BY...GATOR TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE .TAG 20110717.TOURB.01/LCH