FNUS74 KEPZ 182311
FWSEPZ

FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR JACK COMPLEX...WILDERNESS RD
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
511 PM MDT MON JUL 18 2011

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1616 MDT ON JULY 18.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST LOW AND MID LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
PROVIDE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE TO FUEL AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA. HOWEVER...A STRONG UPPER HIGH
REACHING FROM THECENTRAL PLAINS INTO NEW MEXICO IS SUPPRESSING
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. A FEW MORE LIGHT SHOWERS WILL MOVE OVER
THE AREA THIS EVENING...BUT WITH VERY LITTLE LIGHTNING. MOISTURE
WILL SLOWLY INCREASE THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THAT HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT
WEAKENS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WINDS WILL BE RATHER LIGHT THE NEXT
FEW DAYS AND WILL SWING AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
AFTERNOON HIGHS FROM THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S TOMORROW AND WEDNESDAY
WITH MINIMUM HUMIDITY FROM THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S TOMORROW AND A
COUPLE OF POINTS HIGHER WEDNESDAY. HUMIDITY RECOVER GOOD AT NIGHT.



.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (35-45 PERCENT). WIDELY SCATTERED
                    EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
CWR.................20 PERCENT TIL AROUND MIDNIGHT.
LAL.................2 TIL MIDNIGHT...THEN 1
MIN TEMPERATURE.....52-57.
MAX HUMIDITY........63-68 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHEAST 5 TO 10 MPH BECOMING LIGHT WITH DRAINAGE
                    WINDS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......9800 FT AGL DECREASING TO 400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST AROUND 7 KNOTS.


.TUESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (35-45 PERCENT). SCATTERED
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
CWR.................30 PERCENT IN THE AFTERNOON.
LAL.................1 EARLY...THEN 3 IN THE AFTERNOON
MAX TEMPERATURE.....77-82.
MIN HUMIDITY........26-31 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHEAST AROUND 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    SOUTHWEST 5 TO 10 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......400 FT AGL INCREASING TO 7500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST AROUND 5 KTS EARLY...BECOMING
                    SOUTHWEST 8 KTS IN THE AFTERNOON.
VENTILATION.........FAIR (58000 KT-FT).


.TUESDAY NIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (35-45 PERCENT). SCATTERED
                    EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
CWR.................30 PERCENT TIL AROUND MIDNIGHT.
LAL.................3 TIL MIDNIGHT...THEN 1
MIN TEMPERATURE.....55-60.
MAX HUMIDITY........65-70 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST 3 TO 7 MPH EARLY...THEN NORTHWEST
                    AFTER MIDNIGHT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......7500 FT AGL DECREASING TO AROUND 500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST AROUND 4 KNOTS.


.WEDNESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (35-45 PERCENT). SCATTERED
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
CWR.................30 PERCENT IN THE AFTERNOON.
LAL.................1 EARLY...THEN 3 IN THE AFTERNOON
MAX TEMPERATURE.....75-80.
MIN HUMIDITY........28-33 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........VARIABLE AT LESS THAN 5 MPH...MAINLY TERRAIN
                    DRIVEN UPSLOPE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......500 FT AGL INCREASING TO 6500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST TO NORTH AROUND 5 KTS.
VENTILATION.........POOR (32500 KT-FT).

$$
FORECASTER...PARK
REQUESTED BY...TESSA NICOLET
REASON FOR REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20110718.JACKC.01/EPZ