FNUS74 KLCH 181047 FWSLCH SPOT FORECAST FOR TOURBE...USF&WS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA 547 AM CDT MON JUL 18 2011 IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... THE COMBINATION OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER THE AREA WITH A DISTURBANCE PASSING EAST TO WEST ALOFT WILL ALLOW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP THIS MORNING...BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. LAKE CHARLES RADAR SHOWS SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN GULF EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH MOST OF THE ACTIVITY CURRENTLY ALONG AND EAST OF MARSH ISLAND. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN DEVELOPING NEAR THE WILDFIRE SPOT BETWEEN 6 AM AND 9 AM. THESE SHOWERS WILL BE LIGHT TO MODERATE WITH A LOW CHANCE FOR LIGHTNING. THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FROM NOON THROUGH 7 PM. SOME STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING FREQUENT LIGHTNING ALONG WITH HEAVY RAINFALL. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL AVERAGE AROUND ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH ACROSS THE AREA...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF ONE TO THREE INCHES POSSIBLE. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING...THEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 90. MIN HUMIDITY........63 PERCENT. EYE LEVEL WINDS.....LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTH AROUND 5 MPH EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......700-2500 FT AGL INCREASING TO 4800-5700 FT AGL. MIXING WINDS........EAST 3 TO 7 MPH. RAINFALL AMOUNT.....0.33 INCHES. WIND (20 FT)........ SLOPE/VALLEY.......LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTH AROUND 5 MPH EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. SMOKE DISPERSION....POOR EARLY IN THE MORNING BECOMING FAIR BY LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. TIME (CDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM SKY (%).........74 74 75 75 76 77 78 79 77 75 73 71 WEATHER COV.....CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY WEATHER TYPE....TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TEMP............78 78 80 83 85 87 88 89 89 89 89 88 RH..............93 91 84 77 71 68 66 64 63 63 63 65 20 FT WIND DIR..NW NW W W SW SW S S S S S S 20 FT WIND SPD..2 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 5 5 5 20 FT WIND GUST.5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 EYE LVL WND DIR.N2 NW W W SW SW S S S S S S EYE LVL WND SPD.2 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 4 4 4 EYE LVL WND GST.5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 MIX HGT (KFT)...0.7 0.7 1.6 2.5 3.4 3.6 3.9 4.2 4.7 5.2 5.7 5.3 MIX HGT (KM)....0.2 0.2 0.5 0.8 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.6 1.7 1.6 TRANSP WIND DIR.W W W W W NW NW N N NE NE NE TRANSP WIND SPD.3 3 5 5 6 7 7 7 6 6 5 5 TRANS SPD (M/S).1 1 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 2 2 HAINES INDEX....2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (55-65 PERCENT). CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING...THEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT. MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 78. MAX HUMIDITY........88 PERCENT. EYE LEVEL WINDS.....SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH IN THE EVENING BECOMING LIGHT. HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......3000-4400 FT AGL DECREASING TO 300-1700 FT AGL EARLY IN THE EVENING. MIXING WINDS........EAST 3 TO 6 MPH. RAINFALL AMOUNT.....0.08 INCHES. WIND (20 FT)........ SLOPE/VALLEY.......SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH IN THE EVENING BECOMING LIGHT. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. SMOKE DISPERSION....POOR. .TUESDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (55-65 PERCENT). CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 89. MIN HUMIDITY........63 PERCENT. EYE LEVEL WINDS.....LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTH 5 TO 8 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......400-1400 FT AGL INCREASING TO 3500-4900 FT AGL. MIXING WINDS........SOUTH 5 TO 13 MPH. RAINFALL AMOUNT.....0.79 INCHES. WIND (20 FT)........ SLOPE/VALLEY.......LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTH 5 TO 8 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. SMOKE DISPERSION....GOOD. $$ FORECASTER...LOCKWOOD REQUESTED BY...GATOR TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE .TAG 20110718.TOURB.01/LCH