FNUS72 KILM 191842 FWSILM SPOT FORECAST FOR SIMMONS RD FIRE...NC FOREST SERVICE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 242 PM EDT TUE JUL 19 2011 FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1427 EDT ON JULY 19. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... A WARMING TREND WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED IN THE UPCOMING DAYS AS AN UPPER RIDGE WEST OF THE REGION BUILDS EASTWARD...AND THE BERMUDA SURFACE RIDGE SUPPLIES A STEADY FEED OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. SW WIND FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEK. WIND PROFILE ANALYSIS/FIRE CONTROL OVER FLAT TERRAIN IS FAVORABLE. .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (45-55 PERCENT)...THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 73. MAX HUMIDITY........82-87 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 6 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. MIXING HEIGHT.......5400 FT AGL...DECREASING TO 100-700 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 5 TO 9 MPH...BECOMING SOUTH AFTER MIDNIGHT. MAX LVORI...........6. MAX ADI.............39. TIME (EDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM SKY (%).............50 62 75 81 88 86 WEATHER COV......... S CHC S CHC S CHC S CHC S CHC WEATHER TYPE........NONE RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR TEMP................93 88 83 79 77 75 RH..................37 44 57 67 73 83 20 FT WIND..........SW 5 SW 4 SW 3 SW 3 SW 4 SW 3 20 FT WIND GUST.....10 5 5 5 5 5 LVORI...............1 2 3 3 3 4 ADI.................39 5 5 3 6 6 .WEDNESDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT). A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 99. MIN HUMIDITY........44 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...BECOMING SOUTHWEST AROUND 5 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. MIXING HEIGHT.......100-1700 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 5600-5800 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 5 TO 7 MPH. MAX LVORI...........6. MAX ADI.............26. TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).............87 91 75 65 58 54 WEATHER COV.........S CHC S CHC S CHC S CHC ISOLTD WEATHER TYPE........RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR NONE RNSHWR TEMP................74 76 86 94 97 97 RH..................84 76 57 46 44 46 20 FT WIND..........SW 3 SW 4 SW 2 SW 2 SW 2 SW 3 20 FT WIND GUST.....5 5 5 5 5 5 LVORI...............6 4 2 2 2 2 ADI.................3 10 20 21 26 25 .WEDNESDAY NIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT). MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 76. MAX HUMIDITY........91 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. MIXING HEIGHT.......4300-5800 FT AGL...DECREASING TO 300-600 FT AGL IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 6 TO 12 MPH...BECOMING 7 TO 12 MPH LATE IN THE EVENING. MAX LVORI...........6. MAX ADI.............25. TIME (EDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM SKY (%).............49 45 44 42 40 37 WEATHER COV.........ISOLTD ISOLTD ISOLTD ISOLTD WEATHER TYPE........RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR NONE NONE TEMP................95 89 84 80 78 77 RH..................52 64 75 82 86 90 20 FT WIND..........S 4 S 4 S 3 S 3 S 2 S 2 20 FT WIND GUST.....5 5 5 5 5 5 LVORI...............2 3 3 5 5 6 ADI.................25 8 8 5 5 5 .THURSDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (30-40 PERCENT). MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 99. MIN HUMIDITY........43 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...BECOMING SOUTHWEST 5 TO 6 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. MIXING HEIGHT.......300-1100 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 5900-7600 FT AGL IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS..... MAX LVORI...........6. MAX ADI.............6. TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).............34 31 32 34 35 34 WEATHER COV......... ISOLTD ISOLTD WEATHER TYPE........NONE NONE NONE NONE RNSHWR RNSHWR TEMP................77 78 87 95 98 99 RH..................90 86 62 48 43 43 20 FT WIND..........SW 3 SW 3 SW 4 SW 5 SW 5 SW 5 20 FT WIND GUST.....5 5 5 10 10 10 LVORI...............6 6 3 2 2 2 ADI.................4 0 0 0 0 0 $$ FORECASTER...KREITNER REQUESTED BY...TIM HOWELL TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE .TAG 20110719.SIMMO.02/ILM