FNUS72 KILM 201014 FWSILM SPOT FORECAST FOR SIMMONS RD FIRE...NCFS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 614 AM EDT WED JUL 20 2011 FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 0555 EDT ON JULY 20. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. ...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING... .DISCUSSION... HEAT INDEX VALUES...WHICH COMBINE TEMPERATURE AND HUMIDITY...WILL LIKELY RANGE FROM 105 TO 108 DEGREES AT THE SIMMONS FIRE SITE THIS AFTERNOON. THE LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE THE SEA BREEZE WILL NOT REACH THE FIRE SITE. AS A RESULT...A SW WIND TRAJECTORY IS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY. HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN THE UPCOMING DAYS AS AN UPPER RIDGE WEST OF THE REGION BUILDS EASTWARD...WHILE THE BERMUDA SURFACE RIDGE SUPPLIES A STEADY FEED OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEK. WIND PROFILE ANALYSIS/FIRE CONTROL OVER FLAT TERRAIN IS UNFAVORABLE TYPE 1-F THROUGH MID-MORNING. DIRECTION SW AT 1100 FEET WITH A MAXIMUM SPEED OF 26 MPH. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (15-25 PERCENT). A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 99. MIN HUMIDITY........42 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 4 TO 7 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS LATE. MIXING HEIGHT.......100-1100 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 7500-9400 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 7 TO 10 MPH. MAX LVORI...........6 EARLY. MAX ADI.............55 LATE AFTERNOON. TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).............21 18 19 25 39 46 WEATHER COV......... S CHC WEATHER TYPE........NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE RNSHWR TEMP................75 77 87 94 96 98 RH..................91 87 63 50 45 42 20 FT WIND..........SW 4 SW 4 SW 2 SW 3 SW 4 SW 5 20 FT WIND GUST.....5 5 5 5 5 10 LVORI...............6 4 2 2 2 2 ADI.................4 4 3 28 49 55 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (45-55 PERCENT)...THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY (45-55 PERCENT)...THEN BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY (35-45 PERCENT). A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 75. MAX HUMIDITY........96 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 8 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. MIXING HEIGHT.......7500 FT AGL...DECREASING TO 300-600 FT AGL IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 9 TO 13 MPH. MAX LVORI...........7. MAX ADI.............52. TIME (EDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM SKY (%).............49 52 43 38 35 34 WEATHER COV.........S CHC S CHC S CHC S CHC S CHC S CHC WEATHER TYPE........RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR TEMP................94 87 82 79 77 76 RH..................48 63 76 86 92 95 20 FT WIND..........SW 5 SW 5 S 6 S 6 S 5 S 5 20 FT WIND GUST.....10 10 10 15 10 10 LVORI...............2 3 3 4 6 7 ADI.................52 38 10 9 8 8 .THURSDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (35-45 PERCENT). MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 100. MIN HUMIDITY........43 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 8 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS LATE. MIXING HEIGHT.......300-1100 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 5900-7600 FT AGL LATE IN THE MORNING. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 10 TO 14 MPH. MAX LVORI...........7. MAX ADI.............67. TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).............34 36 39 41 42 39 WEATHER COV......... WEATHER TYPE........NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP................76 79 87 95 98 99 RH..................96 88 63 49 44 43 20 FT WIND..........SW 5 SW 5 SW 5 SW 5 S 5 S 6 20 FT WIND GUST.....10 10 10 10 10 10 LVORI...............7 4 2 2 2 1 ADI.................8 8 8 46 51 62 $$ FORECASTER...COLBY REQUESTED BY...TIM HOWELL FBAN TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE .TAG 20110720.SIMMO.01/ILM