FNUS72 KILM 201937
FWSILM

SPOT FORECAST FOR SIMMONS ROAD FIRE...NC FOREST SERVICE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
337 PM EDT WED JUL 20 2011

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1523 EDT ON JULY 20.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...
...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 7 PM EDT THURSDAY...

.DISCUSSION...
A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
HOT TEMPERATURES...SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS...
AND LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS. THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE THE
BIGGEST FACTOR TO DEAL WITH. HEAT INDEX VALUES SHOULD REACH 105
TO 109 DEGREES THURSDAY...WITH SIMILAR READINGS POSSIBLE INTO THE
WEEKEND.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (25-35 PERCENT). A SLIGHT CHANCE
                    OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 76.
MAX HUMIDITY........96 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 6 MPH UNTIL EARLY
                    MORNING...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
MIXING HEIGHT.......5400 FT AGL...DECREASING TO 400 FT
                    AGL BY LATE EVENING.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 9 TO 16 MPH.
MAX LVORI...........7.
MAX ADI.............39.

TIME (EDT)          6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
SKY (%).............46     41     34     27     20     15
WEATHER COV.........S CHC  S CHC  S CHC
WEATHER TYPE........TSTM   TSTM   TSTM   NONE   NONE   NONE
TEMP................94     89     84     80     78     77
RH..................47     57     76     86     92     95
20 FT WIND..........SW 5   S 4    S 4    SW 4   SW 4   SW 2
20 FT WIND GUST.....10     8      8      8      8      5
LVORI...............1      3      4      5      6      6
ADI.................39     5      7      7      6      6

.THURSDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (25-35 PERCENT). ISOLATED SHOWERS
                    AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 100.
MIN HUMIDITY........43 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...BECOMING SOUTH 5 TO
                    8 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING.
MIXING HEIGHT.......INCREASING TO 6600 FT AGL BY MID-AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 8 TO 14 MPH.
MAX LVORI...........7.
MAX ADI.............67.

TIME (EDT)          6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
SKY (%).............14     16     43     45     46     44
WEATHER COV.........                            ISOLTD ISOLTD
WEATHER TYPE........NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   TSTM   TSTM
TEMP................77     79     87     94     97     98
RH..................96     86     67     51     44     43
20 FT WIND..........SW 2   SW 3   SW 3   SW 5   SW 6   S 6
20 FT WIND GUST.....5      5      5      10     10     10
LVORI...............7      5      3      1      1      1
ADI.................5      11     14     51     57     62

.THURSDAY NIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (35-45 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 77.
MAX HUMIDITY........92 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 8 MPH UNTIL EARLY
                    MORNING...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
MIXING HEIGHT.......6500 FT AGL EARLY...DECREASING TO 700 FT AGL BY
                    LATE EVENING.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 13 TO 18 MPH.
MAX LVORI...........6.
MAX ADI.............79.

TIME (EDT)          6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
SKY (%).............42     40     39     37     37     36
WEATHER COV.........ISOLTD ISOLTD ISOLTD
WEATHER TYPE........TSTM   TSTM   TSTM   NONE   NONE   NONE
TEMP................96     90     85     81     79     77
RH..................47     59     71     80     86     91
20 FT WIND..........S 6    S 6    S 5    S 4    S 4    S 3
20 FT WIND GUST.....10     10     10     5      5      5
LVORI...............1      2      3      4      4      5
ADI.................79     15     9      7      6      6


$$
FORECASTER...ARMSTRONG
REQUESTED BY...TIM HOWELL
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20110720.SIMMO.02/ILM