FNUS76 KMFR 211233
FWSMFR

SPOT FORECAST FOR SCORPION COMPLEX...USDA MODOC NATIONAL FOREST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
533 AM PDT THU JUL 21 2011

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1731 PDT ON JULY 20.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF A SECOND WEAK DISTURBANCE
WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST OREGON TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING LOW
CLOUDS FROM THE COAST INTO THE UMPQUA BASIN WITH PATCHY COASTAL
DRIZZLE. OTHERWISE...IT WILL BE DRY AND WARM INLAND. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRING MORE SUBSTANTIAL WARMING ON SATURDAY. WEAK INSTABILITY
IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD OF THE NEXT
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...RESULTING IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES. THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE
QUICKLY WHICH WOULD SEND THE AREA OF INSTABILITY MOSTLY NORTHEAST
OF OUR REGION ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO FOLLOW ON
TUESDAY.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....82.
MIN HUMIDITY........28 PERCENT.
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....NORTHWEST WIND 1 TO 3 MPH BECOMING NORTHWEST
                    3 TO 5 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......500-1800 FT AGL INCREASING TO 5900-6400 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........NORTHWEST 15 MPH.
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
LAL.................1.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WIND BECOMING NORTHWEST 6 TO 11 MPH IN
                    THE AFTERNOON.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....48.
MAX HUMIDITY........90 PERCENT.
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....NORTHWEST WINDS 4 TO 8 MPH IN THE EVENING
                    BECOMING NORTH WIND 1 TO 3 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......5900 FT AGL DECREASING TO 500 FT AGL THROUGH
                    THE NIGHT.
MIXING WINDS........WEST 16 TO 26 MPH.
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
LAL.................1.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHWEST WINDS 6 TO 11 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
                    AROUND 20 MPH IN THE EVENING BECOMING LIGHT
                    WIND.

.FRIDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....80-85.
MIN HUMIDITY........19-29 PERCENT.
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....NORTH WIND TO 2 MPH BECOMING NORTHWEST 3 TO
                    5 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......500 FT AGL INCREASING TO 7300-8000 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........WEST 10 MPH.
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
LAL.................1.
WIND (20 FT)........BECOMING WEST WIND 6 TO 10 MPH.

$$
FORECASTER...NELAIMISCHKIES
REQUESTED BY...SHAWN MACK
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20110720.SCORP.02/MFR