FNUS75 KGJT 220043
FWSGJT

SPOT FORECAST FOR CARLYLE...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
643 PM MDT THU JUL 21 2011

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1814 MDT ON JULY 21.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO WORK IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY FOR LOWER DAYTIME HUMIDITY ON FRIDAY. WINDS WILL GENERALLY
EXHIBIT A SLOPE-VALLEY DIURNAL PATTERN...WITH SOME GUSTINESS
DURING THE HEAT OF THE DAY. BE ALERT FOR THERMAL BELTS ON THE MID-
SLOPE AS THE VALLEY INVERSION DEVELOPS EARLY TONIGHT. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS ON
FRIDAY.


THIS EVENING UNTIL SUNSET...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (20-30%).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....75-80 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........29-33%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST 5 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 12 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD.
HAINES INDEX........6 HIGH.
LAL.................1.
MIXING HEIGHT.......7500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 12 MPH.


.TONIGHT (AFTER SUNSET)...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (10%).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....51-56 F.
MAX HUMIDITY........48-56%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST 5 MPH BECOMING DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 2-4 MPH
                    BY 2130.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR.
HAINES INDEX........6 HIGH.
LAL.................1.
MIXING HEIGHT.......LOWERING TO 500 FT AGL BY 2200.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 10 MPH BECOMING DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY
                    3 MPH BY 2200.

.FRIDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (0-10%) 1300...THEN BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY
                    (30-40%).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....79-84 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........16-21%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 2-4 MPH UNTIL 0930...THEN
                    BECOMING UPSLOPE 2-4 MPH BY 1100. SHIFTING TO
                    THE SOUTHWEST 6-8 MPH BY 1300 WITH OCCASIONAL
                    GUSTS TO 15 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 1000...THEN FAIR INCREASING TO VERY
                    GOOD BY 1300.
HAINES INDEX........6 HIGH.
LAL.................1.
MIXING HEIGHT.......5000 FT AGL AT 1200 INCREASING TO 11000 FT AGL
                    BY 1400.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 3 MPH UNTIL 0930...THEN
                    UPSLOPE 5 MPH UNTIL 1200...THEN SOUTHWEST 13 MPH
                    DURING THE AFTERNOON.

$$
FORECASTER...JIM DANIELS
REQUESTED BY...DURANGO DISPATCH
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20110721.CARLY.01/GJT