FNUS75 KGJT 211631
FWSGJT

SPOT FORECAST FOR CRACKER...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1031 AM MDT THU JUL 21 2011

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 0923 MDT ON JULY 21.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...THE DEEP MONSOONAL PLUME OF MOISTURE WILL BE BEGIN
TO SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE PLAINS AS HIGH PRESSURE BREAKS DOWN OVER
THE AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN A DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW...HOWEVER THIS
DRIER AIR WILL BE SLOW TO MAKE IT ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS AREA. JUST
A SLIGHT DECREASE IN RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL BE EXPECTED TODAY AS
COMPARED TO YESTERDAYS VALUES. BETTER DRYING WILL THEN DEVELOP ON
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER THERE WILL STILL BE ENOUGH
LINGERING MOISTURE TO FIRE OFF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS EACH
AFTERNOON...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER PEAKS NORTH OF THE BURN SITE.


.TODAY (UNTIL SUNSET)...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50%). ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....83-87 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........15-20%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 3-6 MPH...BECOMING SOUTH
                    AND INCREASING TO 8-12 MPH LATE IN THE
                    AFTERNOON. AT TIMES LATE IN THE AFTERNOON
                    WINDS MAY BE DOMINATED BY THUNDERSTORM
                    OUTFLOWS...WHICH COULD PRODUCE ERRATIC OR
                    VARIABLE WINDS WITH STRONG GUSTS.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....VERY GOOD.
HAINES INDEX........5 MODERATE.
LAL.................2.
MIXING HEIGHT.......INCREASING TO 14000 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 8 MPH.

.TONIGHT (AFTER SUNSET)...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50%) THEN BECOMING CLEAR
                    (0-10%).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....55-60 F.
MAX HUMIDITY........45-50%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 13 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH
                    DIMINISHING BY 2200 AND BECOMING DOWNSLOPE/
                    DOWNVALLEY 3-6 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR.
HAINES INDEX........6 HIGH.
LAL.................1.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1000-1300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 10 MPH UNTIL 2200...THEN DOWNSLOPE/
                    DOWNVALLEY 6 MPH.


.FRIDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (0-10%) THEN BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY
                    (40-50%). AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
                    POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....83-88 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........12-16%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 3-6 MPH UNTIL 1000...
                    THEN...BECOMING UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY. AFTER 1300
                    BECOMING SOUTH AND INCREASING TO 5-10 MPH. AT
                    TIMES LATE IN THE AFTERNOON WINDS MAY BE
                    DOMINATED BY THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOWS...WHICH
                    COULD PRODUCE ERRATIC OR VARIABLE WINDS WITH
                    STRONG GUSTS.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 1000...THEN INCREASING TO VERY GOOD
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........5 MODERATE.
LAL.................1 UNTIL AROUND 1300...THEN 2.
MIXING HEIGHT.......11500 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 10 MPH.

$$
FORECASTER...ELLEN HEFFERNAN
REQUESTED BY...DURANGO DISPATCH
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20110721.CRACK.01/GJT