FNUS72 KILM 211949 FWSILM SPOT FORECAST FOR SIMMONS ROAD FIRE...NC FOREST SERVICE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 349 PM EDT THU JUL 21 2011 FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1539 EDT ON JULY 21. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. ...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING... ...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY... .DISCUSSION... EXTREMELY HOT AND HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES AT OR ABOVE 100 DEGREES. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY DURING THE AFTERNOONS AND EARLY EVENINGS...BUT COVERAGE SHOULD ONLY BE 10-20 PERCENT. A MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TONIGHT AND AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH WIND SPEEDS AT 1000 FT AGL INCREASING TO 25-30 MPH BOTH NIGHTS. THIS WILL PREVENT DEEP SURFACE INVERSIONS FROM DEVELOPING...AND NIGHTTIME SMOKE DISPERSION SHOULD BE A LITTLE BETTER THAN IN PREVIOUS NIGHTS. .REST OF TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY (25-35 PERCENT). A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE EVENING. MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 79. MAX HUMIDITY........85 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 4 TO 7 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE EVENING. MIXING HEIGHT.......6500 FT AGL EARLY...DECREASING TO 400 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 14 TO 17 MPH. MAX LVORI...........4. MAX ADI.............73. TIME (EDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM SKY (%).............55 55 33 24 16 14 WEATHER COV.........S CHC S CHC WEATHER TYPE........TSTM TSTM NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP................97 92 86 82 80 79 RH..................44 54 66 77 82 84 20 FT WIND..........S 5 S 5 S 5 SW 4 SW 4 SW 4 20 FT WIND GUST.....10 10 10 10 10 5 LVORI...............1 2 3 4 4 4 ADI.................73 11 8 8 7 7 .FRIDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (30-40 PERCENT). ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 102. MIN HUMIDITY........40 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 8 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. MIXING HEIGHT.......INCREASING TO 8200 FT AGL BY MID-AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 8 TO 14 MPH. MAX LVORI...........5. MAX ADI.............48. TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).............14 16 30 36 40 51 WEATHER COV......... ISOLTD ISOLTD WEATHER TYPE........NONE NONE NONE NONE TSTM TSTM TEMP................79 81 89 96 99 101 RH..................85 82 63 49 43 40 20 FT WIND..........SW 4 SW 5 SW 4 SW 5 SW 6 SW 5 20 FT WIND GUST.....5 10 5 10 10 10 LVORI...............5 4 1 1 1 1 ADI.................6 16 34 40 48 41 .FRIDAY NIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY (30-40 PERCENT). MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 78. MAX HUMIDITY........90 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 4 TO 7 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......5000 FT AGL EARLY...DECREASING TO 400 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 13 TO 22 MPH...DECREASING TO 6 TO 12 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. MAX LVORI...........6. MAX ADI.............53. TIME (EDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM SKY (%).............55 53 33 25 23 27 WEATHER COV.........ISOLTD ISOLTD ISOLTD WEATHER TYPE........TSTM TSTM TSTM NONE NONE NONE TEMP................99 92 86 82 80 79 RH..................44 56 70 81 87 90 20 FT WIND..........SW 6 S 5 SW 5 S 4 SW 4 SW 4 20 FT WIND GUST.....10 10 10 5 5 5 LVORI...............1 2 3 4 6 6 ADI.................53 20 13 6 3 4 $$ FORECASTER...ARMSTRONG REQUESTED BY...SCOTT LUDLUM TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE .TAG 20110721.SIMMO.02/ILM