FNUS75 KBOU 222129 FWSBOU SPOT FORECAST FOR CASTLEROCK FIRE...USFS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO 321 PM MDT FRI JUL 22 2011 IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...A MAINLY DRY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. NO THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING BUT A FEW CUMULUS BUILDUPS COULD PRODUCE OUTFLOW WIND GUSTS TO 30 MPH. CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO THIS AFTERNOON. A BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY. ...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS... .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY(40-50%) UNTIL 2400...THEN MOSTLY CLEAR. A FEW CUMULUS BUILDUPS WILL OCCUR UNTIL AROUND 2000. MIN TEMPERATURE.....52-56. MAX HUMIDITY........42-46%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 11-17 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 5-16 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......BELOW 1000 FT AGL. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR. HAINES INDEX........5 MODERATE. .SATURDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY UNTIL 1200...THEN PARTLY CLOUDY(40-50%). A FEW CUMULUS BUILDUPS AFTER 1500. MAX TEMPERATURE.....78-80. MIN HUMIDITY........16-18%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 10-16 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH UNTIL 0900...THEN NORTHWEST 5-6 MPH UNTIL 1200...THEN EAST 7-13 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 5-16 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......BELOW 1000 FT AGL UNTIL 0700...THEN 2800 FT AGL UNTIL 0800...THEN 5400 FT AGL UNTIL 0900...THEN 8400-9400 FT AGL UNTIL 1100...THEN 11600-12600 FT AGL UNTIL 1600...THEN 8800 FT AGL UNTIL 1700...THEN 6000 FT AGL. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 0800...THEN FAIR UNTIL 0900...THEN GOOD UNTIL 1400...THEN FAIR UNTIL 1500...THEN POOR. HAINES INDEX........5 MODERATE. .SATURDAY NIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY(50-60%) UNTIL 2400...THEN PARTLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 2100. MIN TEMPERATURE.....55-57. MAX HUMIDITY........45-47%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS 7-8 MPH UNTIL 2100...THEN DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 2-8 MPH UNTIL 0300...THEN NORTHWEST AROUND 5 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 0-8 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......2000-3000 FT AGL UNTIL 2000. BELOW 1000 FT AGL AFTER 2100. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR. HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW. .SUNDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY(40-50%) UNTIL 1200...THEN MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1200. MAX TEMPERATURE.....75-77. MIN HUMIDITY........25-28%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 5-6 MPH UNTIL 0900...THEN SOUTH 7-13 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 4-8 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......BELOW 1000 FT AGL UNTIL 0700...THEN 2400-3400 FT AGL UNTIL 0900...THEN 6200-7200 FT AGL UNTIL 1100...THEN 9400-10400 FT AGL UNTIL 1600...THEN 6400-7400 FT AGL. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 1100...THEN GOOD UNTIL 1600...THEN FAIR UNTIL 1700...THEN POOR. HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW. .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5... .MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1200. LOWS IN THE MID 50S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 6 MPH. .TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1200. LOWS IN THE MID 50S. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. WEST WINDS AROUND 6 MPH. .WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 1200...THEN CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE MID 50S. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 6 MPH. .THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 0600...THEN CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1200. LOWS IN THE MID 50S. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. NORTH WINDS AROUND 6 MPH. FIRE WEATHER TABLE FOR CASTLEROCK FIRE. +++ DATA IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE HAS BEEN SAMPLED DIRECTLY FROM THE FORECAST DATABASE. VALUES IN THE TABLE MAY VARY SLIGHTLY FROM INFORMATION IN THE NARRATIVE FORECAST. PLEASE PROVIDE FEEDBACK IF THE INFORMATION IN THIS TABLE HAS BEEN REPRESENTATIVE AND/OR USEFUL. +++ FORECAST SC PP WR AT RH 20FT G H L 10K MIXG TRAN VENTL AJTV VALID AT % % % F % WIND S I A WIND HGT WIND RATE RATNG MPH T L MPH AGL MPH KT-FT 07/22-15 51 10 2 75 23 SW 2 2 4 2 SW13 8742 SW 9 69177 G 07/22-16 51 10 2 74 22 SW 2 2 4 2 SW12 5940 W 8 46593 F 07/22-17 51 10 2 71 23 W 3 3 4 2 SW12 3137 W 6 24008 P 07/22-18 52 10 2 68 25 NW 5 5 4 2 SW13 335 NW 5 1423 P 07/22-19 52 10 2 66 26 W 7 7 4 2 SW12 280 NW 7 1461 P 07/22-20 52 10 2 63 31 W 9 15 3 2 S 9 225 W 8 1498 P 07/22-21 52 10 2 61 36 W12 18 3 2 S 8 170 W10 1536 P 07/22-22 52 0 0 59 39 W13 20 3 1 S 7 165 W12 1578 P 07/22-23 52 0 0 59 41 W13 20 3 1 S 8 160 W12 1621 P 07/23-00 19 0 0 57 43 W13 21 3 1 S 9 155 W13 1663 P 07/23-01 19 0 0 57 43 W14 23 3 1 SW13 155 W14 1832 P 07/23-02 19 0 0 56 44 W16 25 4 1 SW17 154 W15 2000 P 07/23-03 19 0 0 56 44 W17 28 4 1 SW21 154 W16 2169 P 07/23-04 19 0 0 55 44 W17 29 4 1 SW22 152 W16 2111 P 07/23-05 19 0 0 54 44 W17 28 5 1 SW22 150 W16 2053 P 07/23-06 19 0 0 54 43 W16 25 5 1 SW21 148 W15 1996 P 07/23-07 19 0 0 57 37 W13 21 5 1 SW20 2734 W14 21442 P 07/23-08 19 0 0 65 28 W 9 14 5 1 W18 5320 W12 40889 F 07/23-09 19 0 0 73 21 W 6 6 5 1 W16 7907 W 9 60335 G 07/23-10 19 0 0 77 18 NW 5 5 5 1 W16 9540 W 8 65706 G 07/23-11 19 0 0 79 17 N 5 5 4 1 W15 11173 W 8 71078 G 07/23-12 52 0 0 79 17 NE 6 6 4 1 W15 12807 W 7 76450 G 07/23-13 52 0 0 78 17 NE 7 7 4 1 W14 12482 W 6 64314 G 07/23-14 52 0 0 76 19 E 9 15 3 1 W14 12158 W 5 52178 F 07/23-15 52 10 2 76 19 E10 16 3 2 W14 11833 W 3 40043 F 07/23-16 52 10 2 76 19 E10 16 3 2 W13 8884 SW 5 32494 P 07/23-17 52 10 2 72 22 E 9 15 3 2 W12 5935 SE 6 24945 P 07/23-18 56 15 3 70 24 NE 8 13 3 3 W12 2986 E 7 17396 P 07/23-19 56 15 3 69 26 NE 7 7 3 3 SW10 2069 E 6 11827 P 07/23-20 56 15 3 66 29 N 5 5 3 3 SW10 1152 NE 5 6259 P 07/23-21 56 15 3 63 33 N 2 2 3 3 SW10 235 NE 3 690 P 07/23-22 56 15 3 62 34 N 2 2 3 3 SW10 233 E 2 576 P 07/23-23 56 15 3 61 35 NW 2 2 3 3 SW10 231 E 2 462 P 07/24-00 28 0 0 60 36 NW 2 2 3 1 SW 9 230 E 2 348 P 07/24-01 28 0 0 60 37 N 2 2 3 1 SW 9 219 CALM 289 P 07/24-02 28 0 0 59 39 N 2 2 3 1 S 9 208 CALM 229 P 07/24-03 28 0 0 59 41 N 2 2 3 1 S 9 197 CALM 169 P 07/24-04 28 0 0 58 42 NW 3 3 3 1 SW10 190 SE 2 337 P 07/24-05 43 0 0 57 46 W 5 5 3 1 SW10 184 S 3 504 P 07/24-06 43 0 0 57 47 W 6 6 3 1 SW10 177 SW 5 672 P 07/24-07 43 0 0 60 44 SW 6 6 3 1 SW10 2020 SW 6 12406 P 07/24-08 43 0 0 65 37 S 5 5 3 1 SW 9 3863 SW 6 24141 P 07/24-09 43 0 0 71 31 SE 5 5 3 1 SW 8 5706 S 7 35875 P 07/24-10 43 0 0 74 29 SE 6 6 3 1 W 7 7465 S 7 42644 F 07/24-11 43 0 0 76 28 SE 7 7 3 1 W 5 9224 S 7 49414 F 07/24-12 72 37 15 76 29 S 8 8 3 4 W 5 10983 SW 6 56183 F 07/24-13 72 37 15 75 32 SE 8 8 3 4 W 6 10380 S 7 58937 F 07/24-14 72 37 15 73 36 SE 7 7 2 4 SW 8 9777 S 7 61691 G 07/24-15 72 37 15 73 37 SE 6 6 2 4 SW10 9174 S 8 64445 G 07/24-16 72 37 15 73 40 S 5 5 2 4 SW12 7632 S 7 48898 F 07/24-17 72 37 15 70 46 S 3 3 2 4 W13 6089 S 6 33350 P 07/24-18 68 37 15 68 50 SW 2 2 2 4 W14 4547 S 5 17803 P 07/24-19 68 37 15 67 53 CALM 1 2 4 W14 3198 S 5 12739 P 07/24-20 68 37 15 64 58 CALM 1 2 4 NW14 1850 S 6 7675 P 07/24-21 68 37 15 62 62 S 2 2 2 4 NW12 501 S 6 2611 P 07/24-22 68 37 15 61 63 SW 5 5 2 4 NW 8 411 S 7 2291 P 07/24-23 68 37 15 60 64 SW 6 6 2 4 W 3 322 SW 7 1971 P 07/25-00 34 5 1 59 65 SW 8 8 2 1 CALM 232 SW 8 1651 P 07/25-01 34 5 1 59 64 W 8 8 2 1 SW 5 228 SW 8 1622 P 07/25-02 34 5 1 58 65 W 8 8 2 1 W 9 224 SW 8 1593 P 07/25-03 34 5 1 58 65 W 8 8 2 1 W14 220 SW 8 1564 P 07/25-04 34 5 1 57 65 W 8 8 2 1 W15 213 SW 8 1498 P 07/25-05 34 5 1 56 66 W 8 8 3 1 W14 206 W 8 1432 P 07/25-06 55 4 1 56 65 W 8 8 3 1 W13 199 W 8 1366 P 07/25-07 55 4 1 59 56 W 7 7 3 1 NW10 2688 W 8 17801 P 07/25-08 55 4 1 66 43 NW 7 7 4 1 NW 8 5177 NW 8 34237 P 07/25-09 55 4 1 73 33 NW 6 6 4 1 NW 7 7667 NW 8 50673 F 07/25-10 55 4 1 77 28 N 5 5 4 1 NW 8 9207 NW 7 55519 F 07/25-11 55 4 1 79 27 NE 5 5 3 1 NW 9 10748 NW 7 60366 G 07/25-12 75 30 9 79 26 NE 3 3 3 4 NW12 12289 NW 6 65213 G 07/25-13 75 30 9 78 28 NE 3 3 3 4 NW10 11421 NW 6 57285 F 07/25-14 75 30 9 76 31 E 3 3 3 4 W10 10552 NW 6 49358 F 07/25-15 75 30 9 76 32 E 3 3 3 4 W 9 9684 NW 5 41430 F 07/25-16 75 30 9 76 33 E 3 3 3 4 NW 9 6745 W 5 28263 P 07/25-17 75 30 9 72 40 SE 3 3 3 4 NW10 3806 SW 3 15096 P 07/25-18 70 32 11 70 44 SE 3 3 3 4 N10 867 S 2 1929 P KEY: FORECAST - MONTH/DAY-HOUR OF FORECAST /24-HOUR CLOCK LOCAL TIME/ VALID AT SC - SKY COVER /PERCENT/ PP - PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION 0.01 INCH /PERCENT/ WR - PROBABILITY OF WETTING RAIN 0.1 INCH /PERCENT/ AT - TEMPERATURE /DEGREES F/ RH - RELATIVE HUMIDITY /PERCENT/ 20FT WIND - 20-FOOT WIND /MPH/ GST - 20-FOOT WIND GUST /MPH/ HI - HAINES INDEX LAL - LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVEL 10K WIND - 10000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL FREE-AIR WINDS /MPH/ MIXG HGT - MIXING HEIGHT /FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL/ TRAN WIND - TRANSPORT WINDS /MPH/ VENTL RATE - VENTILATION RATE /KNOT-FEET/ AJTV RATNG - SMOKE DISPERSION ADJECTIVE RATING P - POOR F - FAIR G - GOOD V - VERY GOOD E- EXCELLENT $$ FORECASTER...WFO BOULDER REQUESTED BY...TONY SPENSIERI REASON FOR REQUEST...WILDFIRE .TAG 20110722.CASTL.01/BOU