FNUS75 KGJT 221459
FWSGJT

SPOT FORECAST FOR CRAKERS...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
859 AM MDT FRI JUL 22 2011

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0835 MDT ON JULY 22.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...BETTER DRYING IS EXPECTED TODAY AS THE MONSOONAL
MOISTURE PLUME TILTS CLOCKWISE TO THE NORTHEAST. HOWEVER THE SAN
JUAN MOUNTAINS MAY STILL SEE A FEW LATE DAY THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP.
HOWEVER MOST CONVECTION WILL STAY OVER NEARBY HIGHER TERRAIN. VERY
SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY.

.TODAY (UNTIL SUNSET)...

SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (0-10%) THEN BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY
                    (40-50%).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....83-88 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........13-18%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......LIGHT AND VARIABLE UNTIL 1100...THEN BECOMING
                    UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 3-6 MPH. AT TIME LATE IN THE
                    AFTERNOON WEST WINDS 8-12 MPH WILL MIX TO THE
                    SURFACE. ALSO VARIABLE AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS
                    POSSIBLE FROM ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS
                    OVER NEARBY HIGHER TERRAIN.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 1000...THEN INCREASING TO VERY
                    GOOD IN THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........5 MODERATE.
LAL.................1.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1000 FT AGL INCREASING TO 11000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE WEST 10 MPH
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.

.TONIGHT (AFTER SUNSET)...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50%) THEN BECOMING CLEAR
                    (0-10%).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....53-58 F.
MAX HUMIDITY........37-42%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 3-6 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR.
HAINES INDEX........5 MODERATE.
LAL.................1.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 6 MPH.

.SATURDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (0-10%) THEN BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY
                    (30-40%).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....84-89 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........13-18%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 3-6 MPH UNTIL 1000...
                    THEN BECOMING UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY. VARIABLE
                    AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS POSSIBLE LATE IN THE
                    AFTERNOON FROM ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS
                    OVER NEARBY HIGHER TERRAIN.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 1100...THEN INCREASING TO VERY
                    GOOD IN THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........5 MODERATE.
LAL.................1.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1500 FT AGL UNTIL 0900...THEN INCREASING TO
                    12000 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 5 MPH INCREASING TO WEST 12 MPH IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.

$$
FORECASTER...ELLEN HEFFERNAN
REQUESTED BY...LOREN WICKSTROM
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20110722.CRAKE.01/GJT