FNUS72 KJAX 221227
FWSJAX

SPOT FORECAST FOR CECIL TRAINING BURN...DOF
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
827 AM EDT FRI JUL 22 2011

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0900 EDT ON JULY 22.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...HOT TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WITH AFTERNOON
HIGH NEAR 96...WITH HEAT INDICES NEAR 106. A SLIGHT WEST
WIND WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST LATER THIS MORNING. A SEA BREEZE
BOUNDARY WILL BE NEAR TO JUST EAST OF THE BURN AROUND 5 TO 6 PM.
THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE OF A SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM TODAY...MAINLY
AFTER 2 PM. STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM.
MINIMUM RH VALUES OF AROUND 45-50 PERCENT ARE EXPECTED TODAY.

.REST OF TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (25-35 PERCENT)...BECOMING PARTLY
                    CLOUDY (35-45 PERCENT). CHANCE OF SHOWERS
                    AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 96.
MIN HUMIDITY........48 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST AROUND 5 MPH
                    EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
LAL.................1 UNTIL 1400...THEN 3.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1900 FT AGL INCREASING TO 5600-6600 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........SOUTH 6 TO 10 MPH.
DISPERSION INDEX....57.
CHANCE OF PCPN......30-40 PERCENT...MAINLY AFTERNOON.

TIME (EDT)      9 AM   11 AM  1 PM   3 PM   5 PM
SKY (%).........25     33     35     43     46
WEATHER COV.....                     CHANCE CHANCE
WEATHER TYPE....NONE   NONE   NONE   TSTORM TSTORM
TEMP............81     90     95     96     92
RH..............78     59     50     48     52
20 FT WIND......W 3    SW 3   SW 3   SW 5   S 5
20 FT WIND GUST.5      5      5      10     10
MIX HGT (FT)....1900   4200   4200   6600   5600
TRANSPORT WIND..W 6    SW 7   SW 7   S 8    S 10
DISPERSION INDX.3      3      35     58     66
CHC OF PCPN (%).5      10     15     40     40
LAL.............1      1      1      3      3

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT). A CHANCE OF
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 73.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 6 MPH THEN BECOMING LIGHT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......5600 FT AGL DECREASING TO 300-2100 FT AGL
                    IN THE EVENING.
MIXING WINDS........SOUTHWEST 5 TO 12 MPH.
DISPERSION INDEX....2.
CHANCE OF PCPN......30 PERCENT.
LVORI...............6.

TIME (EDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
SKY (%).........46     50     50     45     41     41
WEATHER COV.....CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE
WEATHER TYPE....TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM NONE   NONE
TEMP............90     85     80     78     76     74
20 FT WIND......S 6    S 6    S 6    S 5    SW 5   S 3
20 FT WIND GUST.10     10     10                   5
MIX HGT (FT)....5600   2100   2100   1300   300    300
TRANSPORT WIND..S 10   S 12   S 12   S 8    SW 5   SW 5
LVORI...........6      6      6      6      6      6
CHC OF PCPN (%).40     30     30     20     10     10

.SATURDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT). A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
                    AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 95.
MIN HUMIDITY........51 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTH 6 MPH IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
LAL.................1 UNTIL 1400...THEN 3.
CHANCE OF PCPN......30-40 PERCENT.

$$
FORECASTER...SHASHY
REQUESTED BY...KEITH CUMMINGS
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20110722.CECIL.01/JAX