FNUS71 KALY 251420
FWSALY

SPOT FORECAST FOR FOR SHELVING ROCK...NYS DEC FOREST RANGERS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1020 AM EDT MON JUL 25 2011

FORECAST IS BASED ON INCIDENT TIME OF 1011 EDT ON JULY 25.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION TODAY. THE
OCCLUDED FRONT TO THE LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH THE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ENDING...WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
BRING MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY.  HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN DURING THE MID WEEK WITH DRIER WEATHER.

RH VALUES WILL REMAIN HIGH TODAY IN THE 50 TO 75 PERCENT RANGE IN
THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THEY WILL INCREASE TO ABOUT 100
PERCENT TUESDAY MORNING...AND LOWER TO 40 TO 55 PERCENT IN THE AFTERNOON.

THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 MPH
THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE WEST SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT
AT 5 TO 10 MPH. THE WINDS ON TUESDAY WILL BE FROM THE WEST
NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH.

WET FLAG CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........BECOMING CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING. SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 78.
MIN HUMIDITY........59 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS...BECOMING SOUTH 5 TO 8 MPH IN THE
                    AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED
                    NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
CWR.................70 PERCENT.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT). SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY IN THE EVENING...THEN A
                    CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER
                    MIDNIGHT. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AFTER
                    MIDNIGHT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 60.
MAX HUMIDITY........100 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS...BECOMING SOUTH AROUND 5 MPH IN
                    THE LATE EVENING AND EARLY MORNING...THEN
                    BECOMING LIGHT LATE. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
                    EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL EARLY
                    MORNING.
CWR.................10 PERCENT.

$$
FORECASTER...FRUGIS
REQUESTED BY...FR J  LACZKO
TYPE OF REQUEST...SAR
.TAG 20110725.SHELV.01/ALY