FNUS72 KILM 251844 FWSILM SPOT FORECAST FOR SIMMONS ROAD FIRE...NC FOREST SERVICE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 244 PM EDT MON JUL 25 2011 FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1440 EDT ON JULY 25. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. ...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING... .DISCUSSION... BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN A SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE EASTERN CAROLINAS THROUGH THIS WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH AND STALL NEAR THE VIRGINIA/NORTH CAROLINA BORDER TUESDAY AND DISSIPATE ON WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON...BUT THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF STORMS SHOULD EXIST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY. WIND PROFILE ANALYSIS/FIRE CONTROL OVER FLAT TERRAIN IS FAVORABLE. .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE EVENING...THEN NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LATE EVENING AND EARLY MORNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT. MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 75. MAX HUMIDITY........96 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 6 MPH UNTIL EARLY MORNING...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE...THEN BECOMING SOUTHWEST AROUND 5 MPH LATE. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. MIXING HEIGHT.......2500-3400 FT AGL...DECREASING TO 400-1400 FT AGL EARLY IN THE EVENING. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 5 TO 12 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING...BECOMING LIGHT...THEN BECOMING SOUTHWEST 5 TO 10 MPH LATE IN THE EVENING. MAX LVORI...........7. MAX ADI.............30. TIME (EDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM SKY (%).............74 79 80 81 83 79 WEATHER COV.........SCTTRD SCTTRD NUMRUS NUMRUS SCTTRD SCTTRD WEATHER TYPE........RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR TEMP................93 81 79 77 77 76 RH..................59 86 92 94 94 96 20 FT WIND..........SW 5 SW 5 SW 5 SW 5 SW 4 SW 4 20 FT WIND GUST.....10 10 10 10 5 5 LVORI...............2 5 6 6 6 6 ADI.................30 5 2 4 7 6 .TUESDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (65-75 PERCENT). SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 91. MIN HUMIDITY........58 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 6 TO 8 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. MIXING HEIGHT.......600-2200 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 2900-4200 FT AGL LATE IN THE MORNING. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 7 TO 16 MPH...BECOMING WEST AROUND 17 MPH EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON...THEN BECOMING NORTHEAST 8 TO 13 MPH LATE. MAX LVORI...........7. MAX ADI.............42. TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).............74 70 68 65 63 62 WEATHER COV.........SCTTRD CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE WEATHER TYPE........RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR TEMP................76 79 84 89 90 90 RH..................96 91 75 62 58 59 20 FT WIND..........SW 5 SW 6 SW 6 W 6 W 6 SW 5 20 FT WIND GUST.....10 15 15 15 10 10 LVORI...............7 5 3 2 1 2 ADI.................5 9 16 30 42 28 .TUESDAY NIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (50-60 PERCENT)...THEN BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT). A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL EARLY MORNING. MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 76. MAX HUMIDITY........93 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 6 MPH...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. MIXING HEIGHT.......900-2800 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST AROUND 7 MPH...BECOMING SOUTH 5 TO 14 MPH. MAX LVORI...........6. MAX ADI.............16. TIME (EDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM SKY (%).............61 61 55 47 41 43 WEATHER COV.........CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE S CHC S CHC WEATHER TYPE........RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR TEMP................88 84 82 80 79 78 RH..................64 73 79 84 86 89 20 FT WIND..........SW 5 S 4 SW 4 SW 4 SW 4 SW 4 20 FT WIND GUST.....10 5 5 5 5 5 LVORI...............2 3 4 5 6 6 ADI.................16 3 3 3 3 3 .WEDNESDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (45-55 PERCENT). MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 94. MIN HUMIDITY........51 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...BECOMING SOUTH 5 TO 6 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. MIXING HEIGHT.......900-2700 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 3100-4100 FT AGL LATE IN THE MORNING. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 5 TO 9 MPH. MAX LVORI...........6. MAX ADI.............9. TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).............46 48 48 49 50 48 WEATHER COV.........S CHC S CHC S CHC S CHC S CHC S CHC WEATHER TYPE........RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR TEMP................77 80 86 91 93 93 RH..................92 84 68 56 51 51 20 FT WIND..........SW 3 SW 3 S 4 S 4 S 5 S 5 20 FT WIND GUST.....5 5 5 5 10 10 LVORI...............6 4 3 2 2 2 ADI.................3 9 9 9 9 9 $$ FORECASTER...KEEBLER REQUESTED BY...SCOTT LUDLUM TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE .TAG 20110725.SIMMO.01/ILM