FNUS73 KAPX 291232 FWSAPX SPOT FORECAST FOR SOUTH BRANCH BLOCK 4...USDA FOREST SERVICE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 832 AM EDT FRI JUL 29 2011 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1200 EDT ON JULY 29. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... COLD FRONT HAS SLID SOUTH OF THE BURN SITE AND DRIER AIR IS NOW FILTERING IN FROM THE NORTH. SOME CUMULUS EXPECTED TODAY...BUT SKIES WILL GO MOSTLY SUNNY BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE DRY AIR AND DEEP MIXING WILL RESULT IN THE HIGH HAINES INDEX FOR THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL NOT BE ALL THAT STRONG OUT OF THE NORTHWEST...BUT PERIODIC GUSTS TO 18 MPH THIS AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND GOOD HUMIDITY RECOVERY. A LITTLE PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE BY DAYBREAK...BUT TOMORROW WILL BE ANOTHER SIMILAR DAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND DEEP MIXING. EVEN THOUGH A DRY AIR MASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE BURN SITE...HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDS DEPARTING QUICKLY...THEN BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY (15-25 PERCENT). TEMPERATURE.........84 AT IGNITION...MAX 88. RH..................55 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 40 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........WINDS NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 8 MPH AT IGNITION. OTHERWISE LIGHT EAST SOUTHEAST WINDS BECOMING NORTHWEST 5 TO 10 MPH BY AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 9 TO 18 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......1400-1900 FT AGL INCREASING TO 8700 FT AGL. HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH AT IGNITION...MAX 6. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (800) AT IGNITION. MAX...EXCELLENT (1700). TIME (EDT) 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM SKY (%).........36 33 28 23 18 15 WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE.... TEMP............84 86 87 87 87 87 RH..............55 48 43 42 40 40 20 FT WIND DIR..NW NW NW NW W W 20 FT WIND SPD..5 4 3 4 5 6 20 FT WIND GUST.10 10 5 10 10 10 HAINES INDEX....5 5 6 6 6 6 SMOKE DISP......800 11001400160017001700 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........CLEAR (0-10 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG EARLY IN THE MORNING. TEMPERATURE.........MIN 58. RH..................MAX 93 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING BECOMING LIGHT. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 14 TO 20 MPH DECREASING TO 3 TO 9 MPH IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. TIME (EDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM SKY (%).........11 0 0 0 0 0 8 11 12 11 11 10 WEATHER COV..... PTY WEATHER TYPE.... FOG TEMP............85 84 79 75 70 67 65 63 62 61 60 59 RH..............45 46 56 64 73 81 84 90 90 90 90 93 20 FT WIND DIR..W W W NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW 20 FT WIND SPD..5 4 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 20 FT WIND GUST.10 10 5 5 .SATURDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (10-20 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG EARLY IN THE MORNING. TEMPERATURE.........MAX 87. RH..................MIN 40 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 3 TO 10 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......0 FT AGL INCREASING TO 7000-8300 FT AGL. HAINES INDEX........MAX 5. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....MAX EXCELLENT(900). TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).........10 9 13 19 24 24 WEATHER COV.....PATCHY WEATHER TYPE....FOG NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP............60 63 74 81 85 85 RH..............90 84 57 44 39 37 20 FT WIND......NW 0 NW 0 NW 2 W 3 SW 2 S 3 20 FT WIND GUST. 5 5 5 5 HAINES INDEX....5 5 5 5 5 5 SMOKE DISP......0 0 300 700 800 900 .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5... .SUNDAY... PARTLY CLOUDY WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S. LIGHT WINDS. .MONDAY... PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. PATCHY FOG IN THE MORNING. LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S. HIGHS IN THE MID 80S. LIGHT WINDS. .TUESDAY... PARTLY CLOUDY WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE MID 60S. HIGHS IN THE MID 80S. LIGHT WINDS. $$ FORECASTER...SCOTT DICKSON REQUESTED BY...BEN EBY TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20110729.SOUTH.01/APX