FNUS75 KBOU 292104 FWSBOU SPOT FORECAST FOR ASPEN MEADOW FIRE...COUNTY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO 304 PM MDT FRI JUL 29 2011 IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...MOIST MONSOONAL FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE TONIGHT. WINDS ALOFT ARE WEAK AND OUT OF THE WEST. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING WILL DISSPATE AS THE SUN GOES DOWN. ON SATURDAY...AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION...TEMPERATURES WILL GET EVEN WARMER. WEAK WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE AND THERE WILL BE ANOTHER CHANCE OF SLOW MOVING AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS. ...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS... .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY UNTIL 2200...THEN PARTLY CLOUDY(30-40%). CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 2100. MIN TEMPERATURE.....52-56. MAX HUMIDITY........74-80%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS 8-14 MPH UNTIL 0300...THEN WEST 4-8 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 4-8 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......5000-6000 FT AGL UNTIL 2000. BELOW 1000 FT AGL AFTER 2400. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR UNTIL 1900...THEN POOR. HAINES INDEX........2 VERY LOW. .SATURDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY(40-50%) UNTIL 1200...THEN MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1400. MAX TEMPERATURE.....72-78. MIN HUMIDITY........28-34%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS 6-12 MPH UNTIL 1200...THEN SOUTHEAST 12-18 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 4-8 MPH UNTIL 1200...THEN EAST 6-12 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......BELOW 1000 FT AGL UNTIL 0800...THEN 1200-1600 FT AGL UNTIL 1000...THEN 4600-5600 FT AGL UNTIL 1200...THEN 9000-10000 FT AGL UNTIL 1700...THEN 6600 FT AGL. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 1200...THEN FAIR UNTIL 1500...THEN GOOD. HAINES INDEX........2 VERY LOW. .SATURDAY NIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY UNTIL 2400...THEN PARTLY CLOUDY(40-50%). CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 2400. MIN TEMPERATURE.....52-58. MAX HUMIDITY........64-70%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS 6-12 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH UNTIL 2100...THEN DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 4-8 MPH UNTIL 0300...THEN NORTHWEST AROUND 4-8 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 4-8 MPH UNTIL 2400...THEN SOUTHWEST. MIXING HEIGHT.......8400 FT AGL UNTIL 1900. BELOW 1000 FT AGL AFTER 2100. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR. HAINES INDEX........2 VERY LOW. .SUNDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY(40-50%) UNTIL 1200...THEN MOSTLY CLOUDY(50-60%). CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1500. MAX TEMPERATURE.....78-82. MIN HUMIDITY........22-28%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 4-8 MPH UNTIL 0900...THEN SOUTH 12-18 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 8-16 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......BELOW 1000 FT AGL UNTIL 0700. 10200-11200 FT AGL AFTER 1100. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 1000. VERY GOOD AFTER 1200. HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW. .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5... .MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1200. LOWS IN THE MID 50S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH. .TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 0600. LOWS IN THE MID 50S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. TYPICAL SLOPE/VALLEY WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. .WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 1800...THEN CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. TYPICAL SLOPE/VALLEY WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. .THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1200. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH. FIRE WEATHER TABLE FOR ASPENMEADOWFIRE. +++ DATA IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE HAS BEEN SAMPLED DIRECTLY FROM THE FORECAST DATABASE. VALUES IN THE TABLE MAY VARY SLIGHTLY FROM INFORMATION IN THE NARRATIVE FORECAST. PLEASE PROVIDE FEEDBACK IF THE INFORMATION IN THIS TABLE HAS BEEN REPRESENTATIVE AND/OR USEFUL. +++ FORECAST SC PP WR AT RH 20FT G H L 10K MIXG TRAN VENTL AJTV VALID AT % % % F % WIND S I A WIND HGT WIND RATE RATNG MPH T L MPH AGL MPH KT-FT 07/29-14 75 42 19 75 32 SE 8 8 2 4 NW18 9334 W 3 28123 P 07/29-15 79 46 23 75 33 SE 9 14 2 4 NW18 9634 W 3 29007 P 07/29-16 79 46 23 73 35 SE10 16 2 4 NW16 8464 W 5 33736 P 07/29-17 79 46 23 70 40 SE12 17 2 4 NW14 7293 SW 7 38464 P 07/29-18 69 46 23 68 44 SE14 17 2 4 NW12 6123 SW 8 43193 F 07/29-19 69 46 23 66 49 SE12 15 2 4 NW10 4773 SW 8 32954 P 07/29-20 69 46 23 64 54 SE 9 7 2 4 NW10 3422 S 7 22715 P 07/29-21 67 46 23 62 59 SE 7 5 2 4 NW10 2072 S 7 12476 P 07/29-22 67 46 23 60 64 SE 6 3 2 4 N 8 1587 S 6 9200 P 07/29-23 67 46 23 59 68 SE 5 2 2 4 N 6 1102 S 6 5923 P 07/30-00 36 1 0 57 72 SE 5 2 2 1 N 5 617 S 5 2646 P 07/30-01 36 1 0 55 76 SE 3 2 2 1 N 5 530 SW 5 2203 P 07/30-02 36 1 0 55 76 SW 2 3 2 1 NW 6 443 SW 5 1759 P 07/30-03 36 1 0 54 75 W 2 3 2 1 NW 7 357 W 5 1316 P 07/30-04 36 1 0 54 74 W 3 3 2 1 NW 8 327 W 5 1266 P 07/30-05 36 1 0 53 74 NW 6 3 2 1 NW 9 297 W 5 1216 P 07/30-06 47 0 1 53 74 NW 7 3 2 1 NW 9 268 W 5 1166 P 07/30-07 47 0 1 54 71 NW 7 3 2 1 NW 9 727 W 5 3348 P 07/30-08 47 0 1 58 62 NW 6 3 2 1 N 7 1186 NW 6 5530 P 07/30-09 47 0 1 61 55 NW 5 3 2 1 N 6 1645 N 6 7712 P 07/30-10 47 0 1 66 45 N 5 3 2 1 N 5 3945 N 6 17442 P 07/30-11 47 0 1 70 38 NE 5 3 2 1 NE 3 6245 NE 5 27172 P 07/30-12 64 0 1 72 34 NE 6 5 2 1 NE 2 8545 E 5 36903 P 07/30-13 64 0 1 73 32 E 9 6 2 1 NE 3 9199 E 6 46690 F 07/30-14 64 29 1 74 32 E14 13 2 1 N 6 9853 E 7 56476 F 07/30-15 64 29 1 74 33 SE16 15 2 1 N 7 10507 E 7 66263 G 07/30-16 64 29 1 73 36 SE16 15 2 1 N 7 8504 E 8 57667 F 07/30-17 64 29 1 70 41 SE14 13 2 1 N 7 6500 E 9 49071 F 07/30-18 69 29 8 72 39 SE12 18 2 4 N 5 8442 SE 6 41806 F 07/30-19 69 29 8 71 41 SE 8 14 2 4 NE 5 6421 SE 6 32080 P 07/30-20 69 29 8 68 44 SE 6 6 2 4 E 6 4400 SE 6 22353 P 07/30-21 69 29 8 65 49 SE 3 3 2 4 E 7 2379 SE 6 12627 P 07/30-22 69 29 8 64 52 SE 2 2 2 4 E 8 1810 SE 6 9607 P 07/30-23 69 29 8 62 56 CALM 1 2 4 E 9 1242 S 6 6587 P 07/31-00 44 2 0 60 61 CALM 1 2 1 SE10 673 S 6 3568 P 07/31-01 44 2 0 59 64 CALM 1 2 1 SE12 544 S 5 2567 P 07/31-02 44 2 0 57 65 W 2 2 2 1 SE14 414 SW 3 1567 P 07/31-03 44 2 0 57 66 NW 3 3 2 1 SE15 285 W 2 566 P 07/31-04 44 2 0 56 66 NW 5 5 2 1 S14 285 W 2 674 P 07/31-05 44 2 0 56 66 NW 5 5 2 1 S13 286 W 3 782 P 07/31-06 45 2 0 56 65 NW 5 5 2 1 S13 286 W 3 890 P 07/31-07 45 2 0 57 62 W 3 3 2 1 S14 1633 W 5 9576 P 07/31-08 45 2 0 62 51 SW 2 2 3 1 S15 2980 SW 6 18263 P 07/31-09 45 2 0 67 43 SW 2 2 3 1 SE16 4327 S 7 26950 P 07/31-10 45 2 0 71 36 SW 3 3 3 1 S17 6388 S 9 56597 F 07/31-11 45 2 0 74 32 S 6 6 2 1 S17 8448 S10 86244 G 07/31-12 56 2 0 76 30 S 8 13 2 1 S17 10508 S13 115891 V 07/31-13 56 2 0 77 28 S10 17 2 1 S17 10835 S13 124556 V 07/31-14 56 2 0 78 27 SE14 22 2 1 S16 11162 S14 133220 V 07/31-15 62 28 8 79 26 SE15 24 2 4 SW15 11489 S14 141885 V 07/31-16 62 28 8 79 26 SE15 24 2 4 SW14 11240 S15 144409 V 07/31-17 62 28 8 79 28 SE14 23 2 4 SW13 10991 S15 146933 V 07/31-18 75 29 8 77 30 SE13 21 2 4 S12 10742 S16 149457 V 07/31-19 75 29 8 75 32 SE10 17 2 4 S12 9178 S15 124489 V 07/31-20 75 29 8 72 36 S 8 13 2 4 S12 7614 S15 99520 G 07/31-21 75 29 8 68 42 S 6 6 2 4 S13 6050 S14 74551 G 07/31-22 75 29 8 66 46 S 3 3 2 4 S15 4152 S10 49975 F 07/31-23 75 29 8 64 50 W 2 2 2 4 S17 2255 SW 7 25399 P 08/01-00 40 4 1 62 55 CALM 1 2 1 S20 357 SW 2 824 P 08/01-01 40 4 1 60 60 W 2 2 2 1 S22 309 SW 5 987 P 08/01-02 40 4 1 58 63 W 5 5 2 1 S23 262 SW 6 1151 P 08/01-03 40 4 1 57 66 SW 7 7 2 1 S22 214 W 7 1314 P 08/01-04 40 4 1 56 68 W 8 13 2 1 S20 226 W 7 1474 P 08/01-05 40 4 1 56 68 W 8 13 2 1 S17 238 W 8 1633 P 08/01-06 36 7 1 56 66 W 8 13 2 1 S14 250 W 8 1792 P 08/01-07 36 7 1 58 61 W 8 13 2 1 SW12 1578 W 8 10037 P 08/01-08 36 7 1 62 51 W 7 7 2 1 SW 9 2906 W 8 18281 P 08/01-09 36 7 1 66 43 W 7 7 2 1 SW 8 4234 W 7 26525 P 08/01-10 36 7 1 70 37 W 7 7 2 1 SW 8 5993 W 6 25029 P 08/01-11 36 7 1 73 33 W 6 6 2 1 S 8 7752 W 5 23533 P 08/01-12 64 31 10 74 31 W 6 6 2 4 S 9 9511 W 2 22037 P 08/01-13 64 31 10 76 29 W 5 5 2 4 SW 9 9897 SW 2 24875 P 08/01-14 64 31 10 77 29 W 5 5 2 4 SW 9 10283 SW 3 27713 P 08/01-15 64 31 10 77 29 W 3 3 2 4 SW 9 10669 SW 3 30550 P 08/01-16 64 31 10 78 29 W 2 2 2 4 SW10 10491 SW 3 30761 P 08/01-17 64 31 10 77 31 W 2 2 2 4 SW12 10313 SW 3 30971 P 08/01-18 65 31 10 76 33 W 2 2 2 4 SW13 10135 SW 3 31181 P KEY: FORECAST - MONTH/DAY-HOUR OF FORECAST /24-HOUR CLOCK LOCAL TIME/ VALID AT SC - SKY COVER /PERCENT/ PP - PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION 0.01 INCH /PERCENT/ WR - PROBABILITY OF WETTING RAIN 0.1 INCH /PERCENT/ AT - TEMPERATURE /DEGREES F/ RH - RELATIVE HUMIDITY /PERCENT/ 20FT WIND - 20-FOOT WIND /MPH/ GST - 20-FOOT WIND GUST /MPH/ HI - HAINES INDEX LAL - LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVEL 10K WIND - 10000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL FREE-AIR WINDS /MPH/ MIXG HGT - MIXING HEIGHT /FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL/ TRAN WIND - TRANSPORT WINDS /MPH/ VENTL RATE - VENTILATION RATE /KNOT-FEET/ AJTV RATNG - SMOKE DISPERSION ADJECTIVE RATING P - POOR F - FAIR G - GOOD V - VERY GOOD E- EXCELLENT $$ DANKERS...WFO BOULDER REQUESTED BY...PARK COUNTY DISPATCHY REASON FOR REQUEST...WILDFIRE .TAG 20110729.ASPEN.01/BOU