FNUS73 KAPX 301304 FWSAPX SPOT FORECAST FOR SOUTH BRANCH BLOCKS 4 56...USDA FOREST SERVICE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 904 AM EDT SAT JUL 30 2011 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1200 EDT ON JULY 30. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE IS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD THIS MORNING. THE LIGHT WINDS WILL LEAD TO AN ONSHORE EASTERLY LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPING AROUND 2 PM. PRIOR TO THAT...WINDS WILL BASICALLY BE CALM. OUTSIDE OF THE DEVELOPING LAKE BREEZE...TODAY WILL BE PRETTY MUCH THE CARBON COPY OF YESTERDAY. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS TECHNICALLY POSSIBLE...BUT LATEST DATA SUGGESTING THAT THIS IS A VERY LOW PROBABILITY. HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN JUST ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS BUT LIGHT WINDS...WARM TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH DRY AIR AND DEEP MIXING WILL MAKE FOR GREAT BURNING CONDITIONS. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (10-20 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURE.........82 AT IGNITION...MAX 89. RH..................46 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 33 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........WINDS VARIABLE AROUND 3 MPH AT IGNITION. OTHERWISE LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEAST 5 TO 6 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 3 TO 9 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......0 FT AGL INCREASING TO 7500 FT AGL AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE 7500-8200 FT AGL. HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH AT IGNITION...MAX 5. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (700) AT IGNITION. MAX...EXCELLENT (700). TIME (EDT) 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM SKY (%).........16 16 27 27 27 74 WEATHER COV..... SCH SCH SCH SCH WEATHER TYPE.... RW RW RW RW TEMP............82 84 86 87 89 86 RH..............46 43 39 39 39 45 20 FT WIND DIR..SE E E E SE SE 20 FT WIND SPD..0 0 1 3 5 6 20 FT WIND GUST. 5 10 15 HAINES INDEX....5 4 4 4 4 4 SMOKE DISP......700 700 700 600 600 500 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY (30-40 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE EVENING. TEMPERATURE.........MIN 63. RH..................MAX 87 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 6 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING BECOMING LIGHT. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE EVENING. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 1 TO 9 MPH SHIFTING TO THE WEST 1 TO 5 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. TIME (EDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM SKY (%).........74 74 42 42 42 42 42 42 30 30 30 30 WEATHER COV.....SCH SCH WEATHER TYPE....RW RW TEMP............83 81 78 75 71 68 67 66 66 66 66 65 RH..............49 54 60 66 73 81 84 87 84 84 81 81 20 FT WIND DIR..SE SE SE SE SE SE S SW W W W W 20 FT WIND SPD..6 6 6 5 3 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 20 FT WIND GUST.15 15 10 10 5 5 5 .SUNDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (25-35 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY (50-60 PERCENT). CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE MORNING. TEMPERATURE.........MAX 87. RH..................MIN 45 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING WEST 5 TO 10 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE MORNING. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 5 TO 12 MPH INCREASING TO WEST 16 TO 25 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. MIXING HEIGHT.......0-1500 FT AGL INCREASING TO 5400-7000 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON. HAINES INDEX........MAX 5. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....MAX EXCELLENT(2000). TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).........30 59 59 59 51 51 WEATHER COV..... CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE WEATHER TYPE....NONE RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR TEMP............63 67 78 86 87 87 RH..............87 78 60 50 46 46 20 FT WIND......W 3 SW 5 SW 7 SW 8 SW 8 W 9 20 FT WIND GUST.5 10 15 20 20 20 HAINES INDEX....5 5 5 5 5 4 SMOKE DISP......0 0 500 1200 1400 1900 .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5... .MONDAY... PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. PATCHY FOG IN THE MORNING. LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S. HIGHS IN THE MID 80S. LIGHT WINDS. .TUESDAY... PARTLY CLOUDY WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. LIGHT WINDS. .WEDNESDAY... PARTLY CLOUDY WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S. HIGHS IN THE MID 80S. LIGHT WINDS. $$ FORECASTER...SCOTT DICKSON REQUESTED BY...BEN EBY TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20110730.SOUTH.01/APX