FNUS73 KAPX 301310 FWSAPX SPOT FORECAST FOR SUNRISE THE 3RD...USDA FOREST SERVICE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 910 AM EDT SAT JUL 30 2011 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1300 EDT ON JULY 30. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE IS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD THIS MORNING WITH LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED FOR THE DAY. THE LIGHT WINDS WILL LEAD TO AN ONSHORE EASTERLY LAKE BREEZE OFF OF LAKE HURON. THIS EASTERLY BREEZE MAY ACTUALLY MAKE IT ALL THE WAY TO THE BURN SITE BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS LAKE BREEZE WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR A POSSIBLE SHOWER OR STORM TO FIRE OFF AS WELL. HOWEVER...THE LATEST DATA SUGGESTS THAT THIS IS A VERY LOW PROBABILITY. TODAY WILL GENERALLY BE A CARBON COPY OF YESTERDAY. HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN JUST ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS BUT LIGHT WINDS AND WARM TEMPERATURES...COMBINED WITH DRY AIR AND DEEP MIXING...WILL MAKE FOR GREAT BURNING CONDITIONS. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (10-20 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY (55-65 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURE.........84 AT IGNITION...MAX 89. RH..................40 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 30 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........WINDS WEST AT 3 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE LIGHT WINDS. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORMS. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 5 TO 10 MPH INCREASING TO 9 TO 12 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. MIXING HEIGHT.......0 FT AGL INCREASING TO 8200 FT AGL AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE 8200-9700 FT AGL. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (1000) AT IGNITION. MAX...EXCELLENT (1000). TIME (EDT) 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM SKY (%).........10 30 30 30 61 WEATHER COV..... SCH SCH SCH SCH WEATHER TYPE.... RW RW RW RW TEMP............84 87 88 89 87 RH..............40 36 35 34 38 20 FT WIND DIR..W W W W W 20 FT WIND SPD..3 3 4 4 4 20 FT WIND GUST.5 5 10 10 10 SMOKE DISP......1000100010001000900 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE EVENING. TEMPERATURE.........MIN 63. RH..................MAX 84 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE EVENING. TIME (EDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM SKY (%).........61 61 30 30 30 30 30 30 47 47 47 47 WEATHER COV.....SCH SCH WEATHER TYPE....RW RW TEMP............86 84 82 78 74 71 69 69 68 67 65 64 RH..............39 43 46 52 57 63 68 68 68 70 75 78 20 FT WIND DIR..W NW NW W SW S S SW SW SW SW SW 20 FT WIND SPD..4 4 3 2 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 20 FT WIND GUST.10 10 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5... .MONDAY... PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. PATCHY FOG IN THE MORNING. LOWS AROUND 60. HIGHS IN THE MID 80S. LIGHT WINDS. .TUESDAY... PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS AROUND 60. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. LIGHT WINDS. .WEDNESDAY... PARTLY CLOUDY WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S. HIGHS IN THE MID 80S. LIGHT WINDS. $$ FORECASTER...SCOTT DICKSON REQUESTED BY...JOHN ELLIOTT TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20110730.SUNRI.01/APX