FNUS73 KMQT 301229 FWSMQT SPOT FORECAST FOR M-2 NORTH DAY 2...USFWS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 829 AM EDT SAT JUL 30 2011 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1100 EDT ON JULY 30. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE BURN AREA TODAY AS A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVES INTO MINNESOTA. EXPECT SOUTHWEST WINDS FROM THE LAKE MICHIGAN BREEZE TO DOMINATE THE FIRE SITE TODAY WHICH WILL RESULT IN AFTERNOON HUMIDITY VALUES HIGHER THAN THOSE SEEN ON FRIDAY. ISOLATED POP-UP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR LATE THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY NORTH OF THE FIRE SITE ALONG THE LAKE SUPERIOR LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY. A COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTHEAST INTO UPPER MICHIGAN LATE TONIGHT AND THEN EXIT THE AREA LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE FRONT MAY GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...BUT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL BRING THE NEXT SHOT AT PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPERATURE.....72 AT IGNITION...MAX 85. MIN HUMIDITY........71 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 49 PERCENT. GENERAL WINDS.......WINDS SOUTH AT 9 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST 6 TO 11 MPH BY LATE MORNING. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. HAINES INDEX........3 TO 4...OR VERY LOW TO LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 9 TO 18 MPH. VENTILATION INDEX...FAIR (143) AT IGNITION. MAX...GOOD (492) INCREASING TO EXCELLENT (664) IN THE AFTERNOON. LAL.................1 UNTIL 1600...THEN 2. MIXING HEIGHT.......1800 FT AGL AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE 300-1800 FT AGL INCREASING TO 4100-6000 FT AGL. TIME (EDT) 11 AM 1 PM 3 PM 5 PM 7 PM SKY (%).........29 34 37 42 47 WEATHER COV..... S CHC S CHC S CHC WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TEMP............72 79 83 83 82 RH..............71 55 49 50 55 GENERAL WIND....S 7 S 7 SW 9 SW 9 SW 9 GENERAL GUST....15 15 15 15 15 VINDX KT-FT/100.143 492 602 422 650 MIX HGT (FT)....1800 4900 6000 4700 4100 HAINES INDEX....4 3 3 4 3 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT. MIN TEMPERATURE.....MIN 68. MAX HUMIDITY........MAX 92 PERCENT. GENERAL WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH BECOMING 7 TO 12 MPH LATE. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 18 TO 36 MPH INCREASING TO 19 TO 38 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. VENTILATION INDEX...FAIR (239) DECREASING TO POOR (0) BY LATE EVENING. LAL.................1 UNTIL 0200...THEN 3. MIXING HEIGHT.......2400-3500 FT AGL DECREASING TO 0-1200 FT AGL BY LATE EVENING. TIME (EDT) 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM 6 AM SKY (%).........48 51 56 59 58 58 WEATHER COV..... CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TEMP............82 77 73 71 70 68 RH..............57 67 77 81 86 92 GENERAL WIND....S 8 S 8 SW 7 SW 7 SW 7 SW 7 GENERAL GUST....15 15 15 15 15 15 VINDX KT-FT/100.703 239 0 73 62 37 MIX HGT (FT)....3500 1200 BLW100 300 200 200 .SUNDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MAX TEMPERATURE.....MAX 84. MIN HUMIDITY........MIN 47 PERCENT. GENERAL WINDS.......WEST WINDS 6 TO 11 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST BY LATE MORNING. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. HAINES INDEX........3 TO 5...OR VERY LOW TO MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 14 TO 23 MPH. VENTILATION INDEX...GOOD (573) INCREASING TO EXCELLENT (779) IN THE AFTERNOON. LAL.................3 UNTIL 1400...THEN 2. MIXING HEIGHT.......400-1900 FT AGL INCREASING TO 3500-4700 FT AGL. TIME (EDT) 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM 6 PM SKY (%).........57 55 51 49 43 34 WEATHER COV.....CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE S CHC S CHC S CHC WEATHER TYPE....TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TEMP............72 76 82 83 84 83 RH..............84 74 61 57 52 49 GENERAL WIND....W 9 W 9 W 9 NW 9 NW 9 NW 8 GENERAL GUST....15 15 15 15 15 15 VINDX KT-FT/100.77 336 573 732 745 571 MIX HGT (FT)....400 1900 3400 4300 4700 4100 HAINES INDEX....3 4 4 5 5 5 $$ FORECASTER...TITUS REQUESTED BY...GARY LINDSAY TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20110730.M2NOR.01/MQT