FNUS71 KRNK 301603 FWSRNK SPOT FORECAST FOR 303 FIRE...USFS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 1203 PM EDT SAT JUL 30 2011 FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1144 EDT ON JULY 30. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... A COLD FRONT LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF THE SPOT FORECAST SITE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE SOUTH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND ESPECIALLY TONIGHT. THIS WILL MAKE FOR A CHALLENGING WEATHER FORECAST. HIGH RESOLUTION COMPUTER MODELS STILL SUGGEST SOME WAVERING TO THE FRONT WHICH COULD ALLOW WINDS TO BECOME SOUTHERLY FOR A FEW HOURS UNTIL 8 PM...WHEN LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD FINALLY ARRIVE. AS A RESULT...THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND DIRECTION FORECAST. VISIBLE SATELLITE PHOTOS SHOW SOME BUILD UP IN THE CUMULUS CLOUD FIELD ...AND WITH THE NEARBY FRONT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP MAINLY AFTER 1 OR 2 PM. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEK. .REST OF TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (30-40 PERCENT). SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 90. MIN HUMIDITY........53 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...BECOMING NORTHEAST 4 TO 6 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. CWR (0.01 IN).......40 PERCENT. EYE LEVEL WINDS.....LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...BECOMING NORTHEAST 3 TO 5 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. TIME (EDT) 11 AM 1 PM 3 PM 5 PM SKY (%).............18 42 55 56 WEATHER COV.........ISOLTD ISOLTD SCTTRD SCTTRD WEATHER TYPE........RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR TSTM COV............ISOLTD ISOLTD SCTTRD SCTTRD TEMP................86 89 90 88 RH..................58 53 52 54 20 FT WIND..........SE 2 SE 4 SE 5 NE 4 20 FT WIND GUST.....5 10 10 5 EYE LEVEL WIND......SE 2 SE 4 SE 4 NE 3 EYE LVL WND GST.....5 10 10 5 CWR.................20 20 40 40 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY IN THE EVENING. MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 66. MAX HUMIDITY........100 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT. CWR (0.01 IN).......60 PERCENT. EYE LEVEL WINDS.....LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. TIME (EDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM SKY (%).............72 100 73 60 70 67 WEATHER COV.........SCTTRD NUMRUS SCTTRD SCTTRD SCTTRD ISOLTD WEATHER TYPE........RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR TSTM COV............SCTTRD NUMRUS SCTTRD SCTTRD SCTTRD ISOLTD TEMP................84 80 75 72 70 69 RH..................60 70 80 85 87 91 20 FT WIND..........NW 3 NW 2 N 2 NE 2 NE 1 NE 1 20 FT WIND GUST.....5 5 5 EYE LEVEL WIND......NW 2 NW 1 N 1 NE 1 NE 1 NE 1 EYE LVL WND GST.....5 5 5 CWR.................50 60 50 40 30 20 .SUNDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (50-60 PERCENT). MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 86. MIN HUMIDITY........53 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE MORNING. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. CWR (0.01 IN).......20 PERCENT. EYE LEVEL WINDS.....LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).............63 62 62 61 59 54 WEATHER COV.........ISOLTD S CHC S CHC WEATHER TYPE........RNSHWR NONE NONE NONE RNSHWR RNSHWR TSTM COV............ISOLTD S CHC S CHC TEMP................67 68 74 79 82 84 RH..................97 93 76 64 57 53 20 FT WIND..........NE 1 NW 1 NE 1 E 2 S 3 SW 2 20 FT WIND GUST..... 5 5 5 EYE LEVEL WIND......NE 1 NW 1 NE 1 E 1 S 2 SW 2 EYE LVL WND GST..... 5 5 5 CWR.................20 10 10 10 20 20 $$ FORECASTER...HYSELL REQUESTED BY...GWJ NF TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE .TAG 20110730.303FI.02/RNK