FNUS75 KRIW 311810
FWSRIW

SPOT FORECAST FOR NORTON POINT...USDA - FS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1210 PM MDT SUN JUL 31 2011

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1129 MDT ON JULY 31.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
MOISTURE FROM THE MONSOON ONLY REACHED THE MID LEVELS YESTERDAY
...CAUSING EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER BUT NOT DELIVERING MUCH RAIN AS
THE LOWER LEVELS REMAINED DRY. THE LOWER LEVELS SHOULD GRADUALLY
MOISTEN UP THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AND WILL BE FULLY PRIMED FOR THE
EXPECTED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ON MONDAY.

AS OF LATE THIS MORNING...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE RIDING THE
MONSOONAL MOISTURE SPREADING NORTH INTO WYOMING. A SHORT WAVE
CURRENTLY MOVING INTO IDAHO WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. THE ENERGY FROM THIS WAVE IS NOT EXPECTED TO
REACH THE FIRE UNTIL AFTER PEAK HEATING THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THERE
IS STILL SOME DANGER OF NEARBY THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOWS REACHING THE
FIRE THIS AFTERNOON...EVEN SOME SHOWERS COULD DELIVER STRONG
OUTFLOW GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 35 MPH AS THEY COLLAPSE INTO THE DRY
BOUNDARY LAYER.

OVERNIGHT...THE SHORT WAVE WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE OF A SHOWER
WITH WETTING RAINS AT THE FIRE...THE CHANCE OF WETTING RAIN
INCREASES INTO THE MORNING HOURS ON MONDAY AS THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INCREASES AND AS ANOTHER WAVE MOVES THROUGH.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MONDAY WILL DELIVER THE BEST CHANCE OF WETTING
RAINS AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BLANKET THE AREA. TUESDAY WILL
BE SLIGHTLY WARMER AND DRYER AS THE POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORMS LACK A
BOUNDARY UPON WHICH TO FORM AND AS THE RICHER MOISTURE SHIFTS EAST
...BUT THERE IS STILL A CHANCE FOR A WET THUNDERSTORM AS THE
MONSOON REMAINS.

...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS...
...HAINES INDEX IS HIGH LEVEL HAINES BOTH DAY AND NIGHT...

FORECASTER...ALLEN

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (80-100 PERCENT). SCATTERED
                    THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING BECOMING ISOLATED
                    AFTER MIDNIGHT. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH
                    THE NIGHT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....49-52.
MAX HUMIDITY........80-90 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 4-7 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
                    WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY IN
                    THE EVENING.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....WEST 10 TO 15 MPH BECOMING NORTHWEST AFTER
                    MIDNIGHT BECOMING SOUTHWEST AFTER 0300.
LAL.................4 UNTIL 2400...THEN 2.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.35 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2900-3900 FT AGL DECREASING TO 900-1600 FT AGL
                    AFTER MIDNIGHT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 17 TO 20 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR TO FAIR (18500-57400 KNOT-FT).

.MONDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (95-100 PERCENT). ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
                    IN THE MORNING. NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH
                    THE DAY. NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 70.
MIN HUMIDITY........40-47 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 5-9 MPH BECOMING UPSLOPE
                    /UPVALLEY AFTER 1500. GUSTS UP TO 15 MPH.
                    GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR
                    THUNDERSTORMS.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 15 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    WEST IN THE AFTERNOON.
LAL.................2 UNTIL 1200...THEN 5.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.75 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2100-3100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST AROUND 18 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    SOUTHWEST 16 TO 21 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND
                    AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR TO FAIR (25400-57700 KNOT-FT).

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.MONDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
EVENING...THEN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH
EXCEPT NEAR THUNDERSTORMS WHERE GUSTS TO 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED.
.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. WINDS
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.
.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS
THAN 10 MPH.
.THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. WINDS
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.

$$

FORECASTER...ALLEN
REQUESTED BY...JESSE DUHNKRACK
REASON FOR REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20110731.NORTO.01/RIW