FNUS73 KUNR 041610
FWSUNR

SPOT FORECAST FOR SHEEP CANYON...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1010 AM MDT THU AUG 4 2011

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 0955 MDT ON AUGUST 04.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE CONTACT THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN RAPID CITY.

.DISCUSSION...A MOIST AIR MASS AND WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
BRING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE BLACK HILLS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM IS POSSIBLE...OTHERWISE MOST
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF SMALL HAIL...ERRATIC AND GUSTY WINDS TO
35 MPH...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS. A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE WILL
APPROACH THE AREA FRIDAY...BRINGING A BETTER CHANCE OF SEVERE
STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. SLIGHTLY COOLER AND
DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY.


.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING...THEN CHANCE OF
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURE.........70 AT REQUEST...MAX 88.
RH..................62 PERCENT AT REQUEST...MIN 35 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WINDS NORTHEAST AT 5 MPH AT REQUEST...OTHERWISE
                    WINDS SHIFTING TO THE EAST 6 TO 12 MPH LATE IN
                    THE MORNING.
CWR.................15 PERCENT INCREASING TO 27 PERCENT IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
LAL.................2 UNTIL 1200...THEN 3.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......8000 TO 9000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 8 TO 14 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR INCREASING TO GOOD IN THE AFTERNOON.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS.
TEMPERATURE.........MIN 63.
RH..................MAX 84 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHEAST WINDS 6 TO 13 MPH.
CWR.................26 PERCENT.
LAL.................3.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......100 TO 600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 9 TO 15 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR DECREASING TO POOR EARLY IN THE EVENING.

.FRIDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURE.........MAX 89.
RH..................MIN 30 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHEAST WINDS 7 TO 13 MPH.
CWR.................23 PERCENT.
LAL.................1 UNTIL 1200...THEN 3.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......6500 TO 7500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 9 TO 17 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR INCREASING TO VERY GOOD.

$$
FORECASTER...MB
REQUESTED BY...IC
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20110804.SHEEP.01/UNR