FNUS75 KGJT 060322
FWSGJT

SPOT FORECAST FOR PAYON FIRE...SUA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
922 PM MDT FRI AUG 5 2011

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 2045 MDT ON AUGUST 05.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...A DRIER WESTERLY FLOW WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS WILL RESULT IN LOWER RELATIVE
HUMIDITY AND SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL
REMAIN LIGHT...SO TERRAIN DRIVEN WINDS WILL DOMINATE.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (30-40%) WITH AN ISOLATED
                    THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE UNTIL AROUND MIDNIGHT...
                    THEN BECOMING CLEAR (0-10%).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....50-55 F.
MAX HUMIDITY........55-60%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 0-5 MPH. IF ANY
                    THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF THE
                    FIRE...GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR.
HAINES INDEX........5 MODERATE.
LAL.................2 UNTIL MIDNIGHT...THEN LAL 1.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 5 MPH.

.SATURDAY (UNTIL SUNSET)...

SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (0-10%)...BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY (30-40%)
                    IN THE AFTERNOON
MAX TEMPERATURE.....83-88 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........12-17%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 0-5 MPH UNTIL 1100...THEN
                    BECOMING WEST. INCREASING TO 8-12 MPH AFTER 1400.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 1100...THEN INCREASING TO VERY GOOD
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........6 HIGH.
LAL.................1.
MIXING HEIGHT.......INCREASING TO 11600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 13 MPH.

.SATURDAY NIGHT (AFTER SUNSET)...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (10-20%).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....45-50 F.
MAX HUMIDITY........50-55%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 0-5 MPH. IF ANY
                    THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF THE
                    FIRE...GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR.
HAINES INDEX........6 HIGH.
LAL.................1.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 5 MPH.


$$
FORECASTER...ELLEN HEFFERNAN
REQUESTED BY...DURANGO DISPATCH
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20110805.PAYON.01/GJT