FNUS73 KAPX 052206 FWSAPX SPOT FORECAST FOR SUNRISE UNIT 2...USDA FOREST SERVICE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 606 PM EDT FRI AUG 5 2011 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1200 EDT ON AUGUST 06. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...BROAD HIGH PRESSURE...WARM TEMPERATURES AND FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS WILL CHARACTERIZE THE WEATHER TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR DECENT COOLING AND EXCELLENT RH RECOVERY...WITH ALL AREAS EXPECTED TO TOP OUT AT 95 PERCENT OR BETTER...ALONG WITH SOME OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG AND DAMP GROUND CONDITIONS IN THE MORNING. ON SATURDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM RAPIDLY INTO THE LOWER 80S BY IGNITION TIME. RH VALUES IN THE LOWER 50 PERCENT RANGE CAN BE EXPECTED AT IGNITION...WITH MINIMUM AFTERNOON RH VALUES DIPPING TO AROUND THE 40 PERCENT MARK. WINDS WILL BE A BIT MORE PROBLEMATIC...AT LEAST IN TERMS OF WIND DIRECTION. WITH HIGH PRESSURE ESSENTIALLY OVERHEAD...NEARLY CALM WINDS WILL START THE DAY. BUT WITH HEATING...WIND DIRECTION WILL LARGELY BE DETERMINED BY THE MESOSCALE (I.E. DETERMINED BY TERRAIN/ UNEQUAL HEATING...AND ULTIMATELY INLAND PENETRATING LAKE BREEZES BY LATE AFTERNOON). FORTUNATELY...WIND SPEEDS THROUGH THE DAY WILL REMAIN UNDER 10 MPH (EVEN MORE LIKELY UNDER 8 MPH)...EXCEPT OF COURSE AROUND ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS THAT MANAGE TO POP UP SATURDAY AFTERNOON. .TONIGHT... TEMPERATURE.........MIN 59. RH..................MAX 97 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS. TIME (EDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM TEMP............84 80 74 68 65 62 RH..............46 56 71 87 93 97 20 FT WIND......S 4 S 3 S 2 S 1 SE 0 S 1 20 FT WIND GUST.10 10 .SATURDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (30-50 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG EARLY IN THE MORNING. LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURE.........82 AT IGNITION...MAX 88. RH..................54 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 41 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........WINDS VARIABLE LESS THAN 5 MPH AT IGNITION... VARIABLE WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORMS. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 3 TO 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST 0 TO 5 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. MIXING HEIGHT.......100-1700 FT AGL INCREASING TO 5200 FT AGL AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE 5200-6700 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (0) AT IGNITION. MAX...GOOD (300). TIME (EDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM SKY (%).........59 59 47 47 47 54 54 54 72 72 72 71 WEATHER COV.....PTY PTY CHC CHC CHC CHC WEATHER TYPE....FOG FOG RW RW RW RW TEMP............62 64 66 71 75 80 82 85 86 87 86 85 RH..............97 93 90 77 69 58 54 48 45 42 41 42 20 FT WIND DIR..S S S S SE E E SE SE E N N 20 FT WIND SPD..1 1 1 1 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 20 FT WIND GUST. 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 SMOKE DISP......0 0 0 100 100 0 0 0 0 100 200 300 $$ FORECASTER...BRIAN ADAM REQUESTED BY...JOHN ELLIOTT TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20110806.SUNRI.01/APX